#加密市场观察 Goldman Sachs reports that Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted on the X platform stating that on-chain data, weakness at key price levels, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the lack of clear short-term catalysts all indicate that BTC could continue to weaken over the coming weeks to months, potentially dropping to near the 200-week moving average.

Historically, these levels often represent excellent entry points for long-term investors. From January 28 to January 31, Bitcoin declined a total of 15%, accelerating its downward movement over the weekend. On Saturday alone, it fell 10%, with approximately 46% of Bitcoin supply currently in unrealized loss. After the January close, Bitcoin experienced its first four consecutive monthly declines since 2018. Apart from the exceptional year of 2017, Bitcoin has never historically retraced 40% from its ATH without further declines exceeding 50% within three months.
A 50% retracement from the current ATH would place the BTC price at around $63,000. There is a clear on-chain position vacuum between $82,000 and $70,000, increasing the possibility of a short-term dip to test demand in this range. The current realized price is approximately $56,000, and the 200-week moving average is around $58,000. There is still no clear evidence of whale or long-term holder accumulation, but profit-taking among long-term holders is clearly slowing down.
Short-term catalysts remain scarce; Bitcoin has failed to participate alongside gold and silver in “currency devaluation hedging trades,” and the narrative is also unfavorable. Although the passage of the crypto market structure legislation (the “CLARITY Act”) could serve as an external catalyst if approved, the probability of this happening in the near term has decreased. Even if it passes, its positive impact is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than BTC. Despite BTC potentially oscillating near a maximum discount of about -10% from ETF cost basis (currently around $76,000), the combined factors suggest a high probability of further decline towards the supply gap bottom around $70,000, with testing of the realized price ($56,000) and the 200-week moving average ($58,000) still quite possible, over the coming weeks to months. Historically, these levels often mark cycle bottoms and offer strong entry opportunities for long-term investors.