February 24, 2026 Cryptocurrency Market In-Depth Analysis: Panic Sell-Off Under Macro Storm and Survival Strategies

Tonight, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant panic sell-off, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below the $63,000 level, reaching a low of $62,964.64, a 24-hour decline of approximately 4-6%. Ethereum's performance is even weaker, breaking below the $1,850 psychological support level, with a decline of 4-7%. Market sentiment has plummeted to its lowest point, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunging to 5, entering a rare extreme fear zone not seen since 2018. Over the past 24 hours, approximately 137,000 investors have been liquidated, with total liquidation amounts reaching $473 million, mostly from long positions. This round of decline has been triggered by a resonance of multiple factors including macro policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and internal market leverage unwinding, likely leading to continued weak volatility in the short term.

1. Market Overview: Full-Scale Collapse Under Extreme Fear

As of the evening of February 24, 2026, the cryptocurrency market shows a broad decline. Bitcoin, as the market indicator, is oscillating weakly between $63,800 and $64,700, with a significant retreat from yesterday’s highs. Ethereum’s price has fallen back to the $1,820-$1,870 range, performing worse than Bitcoin, indicating an extreme contraction in market risk appetite. Other major altcoins have suffered deeper declines, and the overall market capitalization has been severely eroded.

Leverage liquidations have become the core feature of today’s market. Large-scale long positions have been forced to close during the price decline, creating a negative spiral of “decline-liquidation-further decline.” Currently, funding rates have turned negative, indicating extreme pessimism among market participants, with a dominance of short sentiment in the short-term market.

2. In-Depth Analysis of Decline Causes: Macro “Perfect Storm” and Internal Fragility Resonance

This round of decline is not caused by a single factor but results from multiple macro and micro factors resonating:

Macro Policy Black Swan: Over the weekend, former US President Trump announced retaliatory tariffs of 15% on numerous trading partners, “effective immediately,” intensifying concerns over global trade frictions. Funds are withdrawing from risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, shifting into traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Spot gold has broken through $5,220, up 2.4%, while the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” faces severe skepticism in this cycle.

Geopolitical Risks Escalation: Tensions in the Middle East continue, with Trump stating he will decide within “about 10 days” whether to take military action against Iran. The increased risk of US-Iran conflict has further boosted risk aversion, but funds have not flowed into cryptocurrencies—instead, their risk asset attribute has been reinforced.

Internal Market Structural Pressure: On-chain data shows that whale accounts are shorting or liquidating under high leverage, intensifying selling pressure on assets like Ethereum. Meanwhile, inflows into US Ethereum spot ETFs have slowed or even turned outflows, weakening market buying power. Valuations of altcoins remain near five-year highs, with clear signs of holders reducing their positions. New funds are mainly flowing into Bitcoin and other large-cap assets, leading to severe “blood loss” among altcoins.

Institutional Funds Outflow Continues: Over the past three months, US-listed cryptocurrency ETFs have experienced nearly $4 billion in net outflows, with a single-day outflow exceeding $74 million. Exchange reserve stablecoins have shrunk by 14% over three months, indicating a severe lack of market purchasing power.

3. Technical Analysis and Key Price Level Battles

From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing a critical support test:

Bitcoin Technical Structure: The 4-hour chart shows the price has broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (around $67,170), currently running along the lower and middle bands, with slight opening of the lower band, signaling a shift from consolidation to weakness and potential downside risk. The moving average system shows a bearish alignment, with MA5 (around $65,539) acting as the first resistance intraday. The MACD has formed a death cross, with increasing bearish momentum.

Key Price Level Matrix:

Support Levels: The immediate support is in the $63,000-$64,000 range (intraday low). If this critical psychological and liquidity support at $63,000 is broken effectively, the decline could accelerate toward $60,000 or even $58,000 to seek support.

Resistance Levels: The first resistance above is at $65,500-$66,000 (short-term resistance), with stronger resistance at $67,000-$67,500. If Bitcoin can quickly recover and stabilize above $66,000, it may challenge the resistance zone at $68,000-$70,000.

Ethereum Technical Structure: Ethereum’s technical pattern is more fragile than Bitcoin’s, with $1,850 having shifted from support to resistance. The next key support is at $1,740-$1,750; if broken, further testing around $1,500 is possible.

4. Market Outlook and Probabilistic Judgments

Considering the current extreme panic sentiment and macro pressures, the market is likely to continue weak oscillation or downward movement in the short term:

Downside Probability (65-75%): If Bitcoin effectively breaks below the $63,000 support, the decline could accelerate toward $60,000 or lower. The weekly double-top pattern (at $79,200 and $71,400) suggests a target around $60,000.

Upside Probability (15-25%): Extreme fear often leads to oversold rebounds. The current negative funding rate indicates that once prices stabilize, short squeeze opportunities may trigger a rapid rebound. If Bitcoin can quickly recover and stay above $66,000, a technical correction rally could begin.

5. Layered Trading Strategies and Risk Control Points

In the current high-volatility, high-risk extreme market environment, risk management should be prioritized. It’s better to adapt to market conditions than to try to predict exact bottoms. The following strategies are for investors with different risk preferences:

1. Spot Investor Strategies

Conservative (Recommended): Wait and see. Do not blindly “bottom fish” before clear signs of stabilization appear (such as daily volume increase, fear index rising above 20, Coinbase premium turning positive). Keep cash on hand, waiting for better entry opportunities.

Aggressive: If confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value, consider small, light-layered buy orders in the $60,000-$63,000 range, with a long-term holding mindset. Use a pyramid-building approach: initial position no more than 30% of total plan, with additional 30% near $60,000, and up to 40% in extreme cases below $58,000.

2. Futures/Short-term Trading Strategies

Shorting Opportunities: Watch for resistance signals in the $65,800-$66,200 zone. If the price rebounds here but fails to break through, consider light short positions with strict stop-loss above $66,500.

Long Opportunities: Only suitable for experienced traders testing long positions at key supports. If the price falls back to $63,000-$63,500 and shows 15-minute stabilization signals (such as long lower shadows, volume-price divergence), consider very small short-term long positions for a rebound, with stops below $62,500.

Strict Discipline: Leverage should be controlled within 3x, with individual position risk no more than 2% of capital. All trades must have pre-set stop-loss levels; avoid fighting against the trend or averaging down to lower costs.

3. Asset Allocation Framework Suggestions

Continue the “defense-first” allocation approach:

Conservative: Maintain a high proportion of cash or stablecoins (40-50%), with 20-30% in gold as a hedge, and reduce crypto holdings to 20-30%, limited to Bitcoin only.

Aggressive: Increase crypto asset allocation to 50-60%, but strictly set overall drawdown stop-loss (e.g., -15%), and keep at least 20% in cash for extreme scenarios.

6. Key Monitoring Indicators and Reversal Signals

Investors should closely watch the following indicators to identify market turning points:

Sentiment Indicators: Fear & Greed Index rising above 20.

Fund Flows: Coinbase premium returning to positive (indicating US institutional buying resumes), Bitcoin ETF fund flows turning positive and continuing for over 3 days.

Technical Signals: Bitcoin daily volume breakout above $66,000 and stabilization, MACD showing bullish divergence.

Macro Events: Federal Reserve officials’ speeches (especially on interest rate policies), US PPI and initial jobless claims data, US-Iran developments.

The cryptocurrency market on February 24, 2026, is undergoing a brutal stress test. Fear is spreading, leverage is unwinding, narratives are being reshaped. However, historical experience shows that extreme market sentiment often breeds contrarian investment opportunities. The current price correction mainly reflects macro-driven risk re-pricing rather than fundamental deterioration of the industry. For investors, the key task now is not to predict the exact bottom but to manage risks and strategically position for long-term value recovery. Remember: in crypto markets, surviving longer is more important than earning quickly. Stay calm, stick to discipline, and wait for the darkness before dawn to pass.