$SOL Technical Outlook: Macro Bearish Structure Intact as Price Approaches Key Demand

Solana ($SOL) has completed a textbook distribution → breakdown → markdown cycle, confirming a broader macro downtrend. The rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci region near 213 marked the end of bullish expansion and the beginning of sustained selling pressure.
After failing to hold the 0.618 supply zone at 182, SOL formed a series of lower highs, clearly signaling weakening demand. This was followed by decisive losses of the 0.5 (160) and 0.382 (138) retracement levels.
The critical breakdown below 0.236 (111) acted as final confirmation of bearish continuation and opened the path toward lower macro supports.
Current Price Action
SOL is now consolidating in the 85–95 zone, showing signs of temporary stabilization. While this area has provided short-term demand, price remains vulnerable as it trades just above the macro base at 67, a level that historically acts as the final support in this structure.
Failure to hold 81–85 would significantly increase the probability of a deeper continuation toward 67 (Fib 0).
EMA Structure: Full Bearish Alignment
20 EMA: 94.26
50 EMA: 110.80
100 EMA: 127.64
200 EMA: 145.32
Price is trading below all major EMAs, confirming a strong bearish trend across higher timeframes.
The 110–145 EMA cluster now acts as heavy dynamic resistance. Any move into this region should be viewed as corrective, not trend reversal, unless reclaimed with strong volume and acceptance.
Fibonacci Breakdown Overview
1.0: 253.47
0.786: 213.60
0.618: 182.29
0.5: 160.31
0.382: 138.32
0.236: 111.11
0 (Macro Base): 67.14
SOL has lost every major retracement support and is now trading in the lowest portion of the range. This positioning keeps downside risk elevated.
Market Structure
✔ Clear descending trend since October
✔ Consistent lower highs & lower lows
✔ Impulsive breakdown below 111
✔ Weak relief bounce forming near 85
For any meaningful structural recovery, SOL must:
Reclaim 111 (0.236 Fib)
Break above 138 (0.382 Fib)
Close and hold above 160 (0.5 Fib)
Until these conditions are met, the macro bias remains bearish.
RSI Momentum
RSI (14): 29–36
RSI recently dipped into oversold territory, suggesting room for a short-term relief bounce. However, there is no confirmed higher-timeframe bullish divergence, meaning any upside is likely corrective rather than trend-changing.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance
111 (0.236 Fib)
138 (0.382 Fib)
160 (0.5 Fib)
182 (0.618 Fib)
Support
81–85 (local demand)
67 (macro base / Fib 0)
Final Summary
$SOL remains in a confirmed macro downtrend after losing the critical 111 structural level. While short-term consolidation and a relief bounce are possible near current support, the broader trend favors sellers.
As long as price trades below the EMA cluster and beneath the 0.236 Fibonacci, bearish control remains intact. Only a strong reclaim of 111–138 with volume and acceptance would begin to neutralize downside risk.
Until then, rallies should be treated as sell-the-bounce opportunities, especially in a macro-sensitive environment where #USCoreCPIHitsFour-YearLow continues to influence risk assets.
Trend > Hope. Structure > Emotion.
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