The Big Four Miners Release 2025 Production and Sales Reports, Escalating the Copper Resource Competition

As core raw materials in the fields of artificial intelligence, power grids, and new energy, copper is increasingly becoming a strategic resource that mining companies must compete for.

Recently, the production and sales reports for 2025 from the four major miners have all been released. Among them, the copper output of the three largest companies has all achieved year-over-year growth.

As the world’s largest copper mining company, BHP remains firmly in the top position.

In 2025, BHP’s copper production reached 2.014 million tons, an increase of approximately 2.9% year-over-year. Thanks to the stable operation of projects like Escondida in South America, BHP further raised its copper production guidance for fiscal year 2026 to a range of 1.9 to 2 million tons.

Image source: BHP

In addition, BHP is making a strategic bet.

The report disclosed that in December last year, BHP’s Vicua project in Argentina submitted an application for a large-scale investment incentive mechanism (RIGI), with plans to complete a comprehensive technical report in the first quarter of 2026. Vicua was jointly established by BHP and Canadian mining company Lundin.

Katarina Zubala, Communications Director of Vicua, stated that the company might invest up to 800 million USD in the Philo del Sol and Jose Maria mines this year. These two projects could be among the most important copper development projects in history.

According to the company, these projects constitute the Vicua mining area, which is one of the largest undeveloped copper, gold, and silver deposits in the world. Vicua estimates the total investment at about 5 billion USD. Local officials and industry experts believe the investment could reach as high as 15 billion USD.

Vale also made breakthroughs in copper operations.

In 2025, its copper production was 383,600 tons, up 9.8% year-over-year, setting a new high since 2018.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Vale’s copper output was 108,100 tons, a 6% increase, the highest quarterly production since 2018. This growth was driven by record-high production at the Salobo operation, as well as stable operations at Sossego and Canadian multi-metal assets.

Image source: Vale

In December last year, Vale announced that its subsidiary, Vale Base Metals, had signed an agreement with Glencore to jointly evaluate a potential copper mining project in adjacent deposits in the Sadebury Basin.

Detailed engineering design, permitting, and consulting work are scheduled for 2026, with a final investment decision expected in the first half of 2027.

Vale is ambitious about increasing copper production.

In mid-January, CEO Sean Ussmar publicly stated that the company aims to become a “100,000-ton copper producer annually.” Previously, the company planned to double its annual copper output by 2035 to around 700,000 tons.

Another major mining leader, Rio Tinto, has shown impressive growth in copper production.

Driven by increased output at the Oyu Tolgoi mine, Rio Tinto’s 2025 copper production (on a consolidated basis) was 883,000 tons, an 11% increase year-over-year, exceeding the upper guidance limit of 860,000–875,000 tons. The underground development project at this mine has now been completed.

In 2026, Rio Tinto’s consolidated copper production target is 800,000 to 870,000 tons.

Image source: Rio Tinto

As one of the four major miners, Fortescue Metals currently does not produce copper. However, it is actively expanding its copper mining capacity.

In December 2025, Fortescue signed a binding agreement with Alta Copper to acquire 64% of the issued common shares not yet held by Alta Copper through a “scheme of arrangement” under Canadian corporate law.

This acquisition aligns with Fortescue’s key mineral strategy and will help expand its copper resource portfolio, including exploration projects in Argentina and Kazakhstan.

Due to valuation disagreements and management rights disputes, the merger negotiations between global mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore recently fell through. However, this battle over “the metal king” copper reflects industry trends amid the energy transition.

Since 2025, copper prices have shown a strong upward trend. The A-share copper and metal concept stocks increased by over 86% last year. At the end of January this year, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices once surged past 14,500 USD/ton, hitting a record high.

Goldman Sachs’ forecast released in December last year indicates that under the baseline scenario (with tariffs remaining uncertain until mid-2026, when tariffs for 2027 will be announced), copper prices in 2026 will stabilize, with an average annual price of 14,000 USD/ton.

Further analysis by Goldman Sachs suggests that in 2026, inventories outside the US will decrease by about 450,000 tons, consistent with the trend of increased speculative positions. If the US begins to consume the 1.5 million tons of copper stockpiled in 2025–2026, copper prices are expected to decline slightly in the second half of 2026 and early 2027.

However, copper remains one of Goldman Sachs’ most favored industrial metals, especially from a long-term perspective.

The firm states that electrification will drive strong demand growth, and copper mining supply faces unique constraints.

Because copper is critical for artificial intelligence, power grids, and defense sectors, if global economic growth slows, price-sensitive countries may implement strategic reserves, providing support for copper prices.

A recent important new study by S&P pointed out that the world will need more copper, and supply will become increasingly difficult to obtain.

S&P predicts that copper demand will grow by 50% from 28 million tons at the end of 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040. Meanwhile, supply is expected to lag behind, and without substantial expansion, a 10 million ton gap could emerge by 2040.

Copper business represents the future growth direction, while iron ore remains the “cash cow” for major miners today.

Data for 2025 shows a shift in the global iron ore market. After seven years, Vale has regained the top spot in production.

In 2025, Vale’s iron ore output reached 336 million tons, up 2.56% year-over-year, a new high since 2018. This achievement fulfills the bold goal set by its new CEO, Vinda, who took office last June. Since then, he has aimed to reclaim the title of “world’s largest iron ore producer” and move toward 360 million tons.

In comparison, the former leader, Rio Tinto, produced 327 million tons from the Pilbara mine in 2025, a slight decrease from 328 million tons last year. However, its Q4 output increased by 4% year-over-year, and shipments rose by 7%, both reaching record highs.

On November 11 last year, the Simandou project in West Africa officially commenced production, marking a historic moment for the global iron ore market. On January 21 this year, high-grade iron ore from Simandou entered the Chinese market for the first time. Simandou is a joint venture led by the Guinean government, Rio Tinto, and China Aluminum Group.

BHP ranked third with a production of 292 million tons, up 0.8% year-over-year.

The company’s Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) achieved record-high production and shipments in the first half of fiscal 2026 (July–December 2025). Additionally, the Samarco iron ore second beneficiation plant resumed operations at the end of fiscal 2025’s first half, further boosting output.

Fortescue Metals ranked fourth with 203 million tons processed last year, up 5.41%.

In the first half of fiscal 2026 (July–December 2025), Fortescue’s iron ore shipments reached 100.2 million tons, up 3% year-over-year, setting a new half-year shipment record.

Image source: Fortescue Metals

Nickel, as a key component of batteries, also attracts market attention.

Vale, one of the world’s largest nickel producers, produced 177,200 tons in 2025, a 10.8% increase year-over-year, the highest level since 2022.

As the largest nickel producer globally, Indonesia controls about 70% of the world’s nickel supply. Its policy developments influence market expectations.

In December last year, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced plans to cut production in 2026 to better balance supply and demand.

Since mid-December last year, nickel prices have soared.

Image source: Caijing M Cube

LME nickel prices briefly rose to 18,741.5 USD/ton in January, a roughly 12% increase from the start of the year.

On February 11, according to sources cited by Argus, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will reduce the 2026 nickel production work plan and budget (RKAB) quota to 260–270 million tons. The next day, the spot price of Changjiang nickel reached 145,500 RMB/ton, up about 2% from the previous day.

Indonesia’s nickel ore quota for this year is about one-third lower than the 379 million tons approved for 2025. Argus estimates show that even after the reduction, the quota will be well below Indonesia’s projected 330 million tons of nickel ore consumption in 2026. This could alter future nickel supply patterns.

On January 15, Vale Indonesia announced it had obtained approval for its 2026 mining quota from the Indonesian government but did not disclose the amount of nickel ore permitted for production this year.

(Article source: Jiemian News)