What Did Analysts Notice? Bitcoin Repeats Classic Bear Market Patterns

Bitcoin is once again facing significant pressure, and what technical experts have observed is changing the market outlook. The price structure now resembles scenarios seen in previous bear markets – this time, traders are talking about much lower levels. After losing key support zones, the price has fallen below $80,000, and market sentiment has drastically shifted within just a few days.

Breaking Below 80K – Critical Support Has Failed

In the latest session, Bitcoin lost over 6%, testing the $77,600 area and reaching its lowest levels in ten months. Bulls failed to regain dominance at the key $80,000 level, and the loss of the mid-range support around $80,700 opened the door to further declines. This break changes the entire dynamic and leads to much more cautious scenarios.

Analysts Noticed Deep Downside Targets – Even Below 50K

Traders are already pointing to significantly lower liquidity levels. Some analysts, including those associated with the popular Rekt Capital channel, have noted that the next key level could be $74,400, and in an extended bear scenario, even $49,180 is a realistic target. The change in sentiment occurred as quickly as previous support points collapsed.

21-Week EMA Sends Warning Signal – History Repeats

A key indicator – a break below the 21-week exponential moving average – has historically preceded bear phases. Rekt Capital observed that the current scenario closely resembles past situations. Since the last EMA crossover, Bitcoin has fallen about 17%, from $90,000 to $78,000. The same pattern appeared in the last months of 2022, when the market entered a prolonged correction.

CME – Futures Gap May Offer Short-Term Relief

Despite the bearish outlook, some market observers noted a CME futures gap around $84,000. Historically, these gaps act as price magnets in the short term, potentially causing a temporary rebound. However, without regaining the main support, such a move would only be a brief interruption in the broader downtrend.

On-Chain Data Confirm – What CryptoQuant Noticed

CryptoQuant’s analytics platform drew important insights from on-chain data. Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of investors who held BTC for 12-18 months – a metric representing the average cost basis at which coins were last moved. Historically, when the price falls below this level and remains there, markets transition from normal corrections into structural bear regimes. CryptoQuant also noted that the realized price now acts as resistance – rallies falter as holders sell at breakeven.

The combination of a price below cost, negative returns, and slowing growth has previously coincided with extended bear phases. Bitcoin is losing key support, technical levels are breaking down, and on-chain data weaken.

Outlook and Risk Management

While a short-term rebound toward $84,000 remains possible, the broader trend remains bearish. Current Bitcoin trading below $70,000 (at $68,860, +3.98% on February 14) shows that declines are continuing beyond initially discussed levels. If history repeats, levels well below $50,000 are not out of the question.

Be cautious, manage your risk. This is not financial advice.