Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 14, 2026

Good Morning from Huajian

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Market Overview

U.S. CPI Eases Inflation Concerns and boosts expectations for rate cuts, but Tech Giants Suppress U.S. Stock Gains. The Nasdaq turned lower intraday, marking four consecutive declines; S&P 500 narrowly halted its three-day losing streak but still posted its largest weekly decline in nearly three months. Chip and software stocks rebounded; Applied Materials rose over 8%, AppLovin up 6.5%, but Nvidia fell more than 2%. Among the “Big Seven” tech giants, only Tesla closed higher; Amazon has fallen for nine straight weeks, and Apple declined over 8% in a week. Under AI panic fears, Charles Schwab declined nearly 11% for the week, software stock AppLovin fell nearly 4%, commercial real estate stock CBRE dropped 16%, the S&P Real Estate Services Index fell 14%, marking its biggest weekly drop in five years. L’Oréal, which had weak Q4 sales, fell nearly 5% in European stocks.

After the release of U.S. CPI data, U.S. Treasury prices rebounded intraday, with the two-year yield approaching its lowest in over three years; the dollar index turned lower, dropping more than 100 points, with offshore RMB narrowing most of its decline below 6.91; cryptocurrencies accelerated their rebound, with Bitcoin approaching $70,000 at one point, up nearly 6% from the daily low.

Following the CPI release, gold and silver accelerated rebound, with gold regaining the $5,000 level, rising over 2% intraday, spot silver briefly up over 5%; London tin fell nearly 6%, and the weekly decline continued; London copper temporarily recovered from two-week lows but still fell for two consecutive weeks. Media reports suggest OPEC is inclined to resume production increases from April; crude oil initially fell nearly 1% intraday, then rebounded, temporarily leaving over a week’s lows but still down for two weeks.

In Asian markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4100 points, while semiconductors defied the trend and strengthened; precious metals and shipping stocks adjusted; the Hang Seng Index dropped 1%; Zhipu soared over 20% to a record high; Shanghai silver plunged 7%.

News Highlights

China

China’s Credit Boom: In January, new social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans 4.71 trillion yuan, M2 grew 9.0% year-over-year.

January 70-City Housing Prices: Overall narrowed month-over-month declines in first, second, and third-tier cities, but continued to widen YoY.

Financial Regulatory Authorities jointly interviewed six ride-hailing platforms including Ctrip, Gaode Maps, Tongcheng Travel, Fliggy, TravelSky, and Qunar.

“Guidelines for Anti-Monopoly Compliance on Internet Platforms” Released, clarifying 8 new types of monopoly risks such as “forced choice” and “lowest price across the network.”

China completes its first offshore recovery of a rocket first-stage body.

Meituan warns: 2025 losses may exceed 23 billion yuan, Q1 losses expected to continue.

DeepSeek may release a new model structure during the Spring Festival, with official disclosure of testing a new architecture.

MiniMax releases M2.5 model: runs 1 hour on $1, costs only 1/20 of GPT-5, performance comparable to Claude Opus.

Overseas

U.S. January CPI slowed to 2.4% YoY, below expectations, core CPI growth hit nearly five-year lows; Wall Street sees inflation worries easing, traders expect a 50% chance of three rate cuts this year.

Bicent: Inflation may return to 2% by 2026, with potential narrowing of tariff policies.

U.S. Supreme Court to release new rulings on February 20, possibly deciding Trump-era tariffs.

Reports suggest U.S. considers partial removal of aluminum and steel tariffs, with London aluminum futures dropping over 1% briefly.

Trump confirms U.S. military will send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

New round of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks scheduled for next Tuesday-Wednesday in Geneva, Switzerland.

Trump states he will visit Venezuela; U.S. Energy Secretary: Venezuela’s oil revenue exceeds $1 billion, U.S. funds transferred to Treasury accounts.

SpaceX approaches IPO: reportedly considering a dual-class share structure; after merging with xAI, debt restructuring is under consideration.

Market Close

US and European Stocks: S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6836.17; Dow Jones up 0.10% at 49500.93; Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22546.671; weekly declines of 1.39%, 1.23%, and 2.1%, respectively. Europe’s STOXX 600 down 0.13% at 617.70, up 0.09% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite down 1.26% at 4082.07; Shenzhen Component down 1.28% at 14100.19; ChiNext down 1.57% at 3275.96.

Bond Market: By market close, U.S. 10-year Treasury yield around 4.05%, down about 5 basis points intraday, weekly decline of about 16 basis points; 2-year yield around 3.41%, down about 5 basis points daily, weekly down about 9 basis points.

Commodities: WTI March crude rose 0.08% to $62.89/barrel, weekly down about 1%; Brent April crude up 0.34% to $67.75/barrel, weekly down about 0.4%; COMEX April gold up 1.98% to $5,046.3/oz, weekly up about 1.3%; COMEX March silver up 3.02% to $77.964/oz, weekly up about 1.4%; LME tin down nearly 6% at $46,702/ton, weekly down 0.03%; LME copper up about 0.05% at $12,881/ton, weekly down about 0.9%.

Market Highlights

Global Major News

China

China’s Credit Boom: In January, new social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans 4.71 trillion yuan, M2 grew 9.0% YoY. The incremental social financing in January 2026 was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The total social financing stock at the end of January was 449.11 trillion yuan, up 8.2% YoY. The M2-M1 gap narrowed further to 4.1 percentage points from December 2025.

January 70-City Housing Prices: Overall narrowed month-over-month declines in first, second, and third-tier cities, but continued to widen YoY. Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities improved month-over-month; declines in second- and third-tier cities also narrowed, but YoY declines widened across all tiers. For new homes, month-over-month declines narrowed, but YoY declines expanded: first-tier cities down 2.1% YoY, with Shanghai rising 4.2% against the trend, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell 2.4%, 5.3%, and 4.9%, respectively.

Financial Regulatory Authorities jointly interviewed six ride-hailing platforms including Ctrip, Gaode Maps, Tongcheng Travel, Fliggy, TravelSky, and Qunar. They addressed issues in loan cooperation, requiring platforms to standardize marketing and avoid misleading advertising.

“Guidelines for Anti-Monopoly Compliance on Internet Platforms” issued, clarifying 8 new monopoly risks such as “forced choice” and “lowest price across the network.” The guidelines specify scenarios like algorithm collusion, facilitating monopoly agreements, unfair high prices, below-cost sales, blocking/shielding, forced choice, lowest price, and differential treatment, providing actionable compliance guidance.

China completes its first offshore recovery of a rocket first-stage body. On February 11, Long March 10 completed low-altitude demonstration flight and safely splashed down; on February 13, the recovery team successfully retrieved the first-stage body, marking China’s first offshore rocket recovery.

Meituan warns: 2025 losses may exceed 23 billion yuan, with Q1 continuing losses. The company forecasts a shift from profit to loss in 2025, with net losses around 23.3 to 24.3 billion yuan. The core local business, which earned about 52.4 billion yuan in operating profit in 2024, is expected to turn operationally unprofitable, with a loss of about 6.8 to 7 billion yuan in 2025.

DeepSeek may release a new model during the Spring Festival? Official discloses testing a new architecture supporting 1 million tokens of context. According to The Paper, DeepSeek’s web/app is testing a new long-text model supporting 1 million tokens, with API still at V3.2 and supporting 128K context. The company may launch a new model during the Spring Festival, reviving last year’s sensational release.

MiniMax releases M2.5 model: runs 1 hour on $1, costs only 1/20 of GPT-5, performance comparable to Claude Opus. The M2.5 model achieves performance and cost breakthroughs, costing only 5-10% of mainstream models like GPT-5, matching Claude Opus in performance, winning in multi-language programming benchmarks, with a 37% speed improvement over its predecessor. Built on native agent reinforcement learning, 30% of tasks are AI-autonomous, with 80% of code generation in programming scenarios.

Overseas

U.S. January CPI slowed to 2.4% YoY, below expectations, with core CPI growth hitting nearly five-year lows. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, one of the highest monthly increases since August last year. YoY core CPI was 2.5%, in line with expectations, down from 2.6% in December.

• Wall Street comments: January CPI indicates inflation fears easing; traders see a 50% chance of three rate cuts this year. Typically, January sees higher CPI due to early-year price hikes, but core CPI growth hit its lowest since March 2021. Despite rising housing prices and tariff impacts on apparel and computers, prices for gasoline, beef, and eggs declined, suggesting disinflation pressures will dominate in the coming months. Goldman Sachs believes Fed rate normalization depends on employment trends, with two cuts expected in 2026, first in June. Traders expect CPI to peak mid-year and then decline, aligning with the first rate cut in June or July.

Bicent: Inflation may return to 2% by 2026, with potential narrowing of tariff scope. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggests inflation could fall back to 2% by mid-2026, with possible tariff policy adjustments to ease imported inflation. She emphasizes the importance of confirming Jerome Powell’s Fed nomination to ensure policy continuity, despite investigations into Powell.

U.S. Supreme Court to release new rulings on February 20, possibly deciding Trump-era tariffs. The court reviews the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Experts estimate total tariffs under IEEPA could exceed $170 billion. Legal analysts say the ruling is a major statement on presidential authority; a decision is unlikely to be unanimous. Although expedited, a ruling may not come until June.

London aluminum futures plunged over 1% after reports that U.S. considers partial removal of aluminum and steel tariffs. To address inflation and midterm elections, the Trump administration plans to reduce tariffs, exempt some products, and halt expansion of tariffs. This move acknowledges that tariffs mainly burden U.S. consumers and that current mechanisms are overly complex. The decline caused London aluminum futures to dip sharply. Previously, Republicans opposed tariffs on Canada, reflecting internal and external political backlash against trade protectionism.

Trump confirms U.S. military will send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. On February 13, Trump announced the deployment of a second carrier strike group to pressure Iran.

New round of U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks scheduled for next Tuesday-Wednesday in Geneva. According to Xinhua, the talks will be held in Geneva on the 17th-18th.

Trump states he will visit Venezuela; U.S. Energy Secretary: Venezuela’s oil revenue exceeds $1 billion, U.S. funds transferred to Treasury accounts. The U.S. is changing the transfer route for Venezuela’s oil revenues, no longer routing through Qatar but directly depositing into U.S. Treasury accounts, with over $1 billion now transferred. Previously, funds went through Qatar to avoid creditor freezes. Despite easing sanctions and issuing licenses, Venezuela’s exports are limited by licensing restrictions and cautious banks, with exports at about 800,000 barrels per day in January, below last year’s average.

Amazon’s nine consecutive declines: highest capital expenditure among the “Big Seven,” now in a bear market, with investors “voting with their feet.” After falling below the bear market threshold on Thursday, Amazon continued to decline on Friday, dropping over 23% from recent highs. Microsoft was the first to enter a bear market among the group, with its stock falling into bear territory on January 29; Meta is just 2.3% away. Investors doubt whether these companies’ AI investments will generate sufficient returns; Amazon plans $200 billion in capital expenditure in 2026.

SpaceX approaches IPO: considering a dual-class share structure; after merging with xAI, debt restructuring is under review. Reports indicate a dual-class structure will give certain shareholders extra voting rights, allowing Musk to maintain control despite minority ownership; a financing plan is being discussed to restructure debt from the merger with xAI, which has accumulated nearly $18 billion in debt from Musk’s acquisition of Twitter and founding of xAI.

Research Highlights

U.S. stocks remain extremely fragile, with sectors from SaaS, PE, insurance, property, to logistics experiencing “alternating crashes,” according to Goldman Sachs traders, “exhausted and shocked.” AI’s disruptive impact resembles dominoes, affecting all sectors; logistics is the latest heavily impacted, with financial and healthcare also under pressure, and tech stocks collapsing across the board. Market breadth is deteriorating: 350 S&P 500 stocks declined on Friday, with over 40 showing abnormal volatility exceeding three standard deviations—the highest in the trader’s memory—while investor appetite for bottom-fishing has vanished.

Bank of America’s Hartnett: Asset rotation is underway, with U.S. policy fueling a “anything goes, except the dollar” trade. Hartnett states global funds are rapidly fleeing dollar assets, initiating a structural rotation. Capital is flowing into emerging markets, commodities, and international equities, with the current environment summarized as “buy anything except the dollar,” reflecting early pricing of a “new world order.” Worsening fiscal conditions and debt risks underpin dollar shorts; a weak dollar may become the norm.

AI models are rapidly upgrading, domestic computing power demand surging, and IDC expects a new boom? BofA notes China’s AI industry faces a critical turning point: explosive growth in video generation models has driven computing needs up by several orders of magnitude, with cloud services and API prices rising (Zhihu AI up 30%, UCloud across the board), signaling the end of price wars and a return of pricing power to sellers. IDC’s leasing prices stabilize, with data center leaders like Century Internet and GDS revalued; AI inference is triggering a new cycle of Chinese IDC prosperity.

Tesla’s profit margins are tiny—how long can the “Big Seven” label last? Tesla’s financial gap with other giants widens sharply: operating margin below 5% (vs. 11%-60% peers), and it’s the only one with declining profits. Its 2026 capital expenditure will double to $20 billion, turning free cash flow negative for the first time, while peers generate hundreds of billions in positive cash flow despite similar spending. Musk may need to fund AI ambitions via SpaceX IPO.

Tencent’s misjudged? Bernstein suggests Tencent’s stock decline is mainly due to lagging AI model development and concerns over gaming industry disruption. Currently trading at 14-15x 2027 expected P/E, near lows seen during the 2022-2023 industry stagnation caused by gaming approval delays and pandemic restrictions. While Tencent needs to catch up in chatbot development, its advertising and gaming businesses continue to generate steady AI investment returns; current valuation reflects excessive pessimism.

Domestic Macro Highlights

CSRC intensifies investigations! Wind Securities and Contemporary Group fined at maximum; AiLuming and Yu Lei banned from markets for life. The CSRC found Wind Securities illegally provided financing to its former largest shareholder, Contemporary Group, and failed to disclose related-party transactions, violating securities laws. Hubei CSRC plans fines totaling 25 million yuan for Wind Securities and Contemporary Group, with 34.8 million yuan in penalties for nine responsible individuals. AiLuming, the actual controller of Contemporary, and former Wind Securities chairman Yu Lei, along with former vice president and CFO Xu Xin, face lifetime market bans.

Shenzhen: No illegal gold pre-pricing, leverage trading, or absolute language like “gold will surge,” “make big money buying gold.” Shenzhen cracks down on gold market chaos! Bans illegal pre-pricing, leverage, deferred trading, and stops “principal-protected” illegal fundraising, bans entrusted investments, and cracks down on false live-stream promotions. Personal participation in illegal gold trading and development of illegal trading apps are prohibited. Financial institutions cannot conduct gold business without approval, nor serve illegal entities.

CICC: Balance functionality and profitability, strengthen support in key areas, better demonstrate the role of the “national team” of finance. CICC emphasizes establishing correct performance views, balancing functions and profits, enhancing core functions within the overall framework, and improving core competitiveness. Leverage system synergy, support key sectors, and optimize investment strategies, increasing proprietary investments in key areas to improve management efficiency.

Domestic Companies

Zhiyuan launches new full-size humanoid robot Expedition A3, entering a “literary and martial” new era!

“Kuaishou KeLing vs. ByteDream”—who’s stronger? Goldman Sachs: no “winner takes all,” but AI will significantly reshape entertainment value distribution. GS believes AI video generation is not winner-takes-all; both Kuaishou KeLing and ByteDream will benefit from market expansion. The global AI video market is expected to grow from $3 billion in 2025 to $29 billion in 2030, a tenfold increase. AI will reshape the entertainment value chain, shifting it upstream to IP design and distribution platforms, which will command higher margins.

Overseas Companies

Microsoft executives intensify AI panic: most white-collar jobs could be fully automated within “12-18 months.” Microsoft’s AI chief issues a “most aggressive warning”: lawyers, accountants, and other white-collar jobs may be replaced by AI in 18 months. Market remains divided on the pace of impact. WSJ reports that Mercor employs many white-collar workers to support large models, with white-collar staff actively training the “substitutor.” Anthropic CEO lists six major AI risks, including mass unemployment and AI gaining national-level power.

Software stocks face the largest short-selling wave since 2010, high Goldman Sachs: market “has nowhere to hide”! The most intense short-selling wave in a decade hits U.S. software stocks; Morgan Stanley data shows short positions at their highest since 2010, causing panic “sell first, ask later.” Fears of AI replacing white-collar workers shake the industry, defensive sectors outperform, and tech giants also weaken. Goldman Sachs’ Callahan notes many tech/growth stocks are oversold, raising questions about excessive discounts.

Report: Nvidia may relax HBM4 specs due to capacity and yield issues at Samsung and SK Hynix. Nvidia might relax HBM4 technical specs, introducing lower-tier versions alongside top-tier chips to ensure Rubin platform mass production. Samsung leads in certification but has only 60% yield; SK Hynix also faces challenges in achieving 11Gbps performance. Dual-track procurement is likely, prioritizing supply stability over peak performance. Whether delivery can be stabilized after spec relaxation will directly impact market share and Nvidia’s next-gen AI chip deployment.

Pinterest Q4 guidance weak, AI impact fears cause pre-market plunge of nearly 20%, closing down nearly 17%! Pinterest’s stock plummeted after earnings and guidance missed expectations, with fears that AI “discovery” and “purchase” features could directly undermine platform value—even if AI capabilities stagnate, core use cases are threatened. Despite active users rising to 619 million, the “tangible AI bearish narrative” persists, with widespread sell-offs of AI-disrupted companies and panic spreading.

Anthropic accelerates IPO: brings in veteran investor, aiming to go public this year. To prepare for IPO, Anthropic has brought in veteran financier Chris Liddell, who led General Motors’ IPO. With political background from Trump administration, Liddell aims to strengthen governance amid regulatory scrutiny. The company recently raised $30 billion, with a valuation of $380 billion; lead investors include GIC and Coatue. Liddell will join Netflix co-founder Hastings on the board, paving the way for a potential IPO as early as year-end.

Upcoming Key News

Doubao’s large model 2.0 released.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks are inherent; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should evaluate whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.