It seems we've entered the Bitcoin accumulation phase — from the peak of 72K down to where?

In recent weeks, Bitcoin has dropped from the 72K level to 68.8K, causing many investors to worry about the next move. However, it seems we are ready for a new phase of this market cycle. Based on historical data analysis, this isn’t the first time we’ve faced such a situation, and lessons from previous cycles can help us make better decisions.

Bitcoin Market Cycle – Faster Decline Than Usual

According to the standard 365-day model of historical bear cycles, the market typically takes about a year to complete. From the recent peak, we appear to have covered roughly one-third of this downward journey. Notably, this decline is happening about 1.25 times faster than normal.

Why is it so rapid? Partly because Bitcoin reached its peak earlier than in previous cycles, so hitting the bottom sooner is logical. The market structure seems to indicate that cycles are shortening. As demand from institutional investors increases, they absorb more selling pressure from miners and large investors, making volatility more sensitive.

Analyzing the Decline – How Much More %?

Based on the current price structure and peak levels, we still have about 22-30% to go before hitting the market bottom. This level of decline is quite common compared to historical data. Observing smart investors in past cycles, they usually start building positions when declines are between -40% and -60%.

This time, many experts do not expect a -70% drop like in previous cycles. Instead, it appears we are approaching a phase where the market will find its bottom in Q3 or late Q2, with a decline of around 20%. According to the 365-day cycle calculation, there are about 200 days remaining to reach the official bottom.

Two Accumulation Scenarios – Where to Buy?

The market is likely to follow one of two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Gradual Price Decline
Prices will decrease step by step with gradual pressure releases. In this case, investors will have more time to accumulate at different levels—such as 69K, 65K, 60K, 55K, down to 50K and 45K.

Scenario 2: Rapid Sell-Off
A strong sell-off could end the decline cycle sooner than expected. In this case, the market might quickly hit the bottom target without prolonged pressure.

Based on current market structure, many analyses suggest that Scenario 2 (rapid sell-off) has a higher probability. This indicates we may be ready for a significant accumulation phase at lower price levels.

Accumulation Strategy for Investors

From now until about six months from now, the accumulation phase should be the main focus. Instead of waiting for a perfect price, investors should consider gradually accumulating at levels such as:

• 69K-65K: The initial accumulation zone for bold investors
• 60K-55K: The main accumulation zone, where the structure may support well
• 50K-45K: The final accumulation zone, where real opportunities exist

It seems clear that smart investors never wait for a single price point. Instead, they diversify their capital and buy in stages, in multiple batches. This approach optimizes average purchase price and minimizes risk during this cycle.

Bitcoin appears to be entering a new chapter. The key is not to miss the opportunity to accumulate while prices are still in this range.