#我在Gate广场过新年 Today, Bitcoin continues its recent weak oscillation, once again falling below the key psychological level of $66,000 in the early trading session. The largest intraday decline approaches 2%, showing a pattern of retreat from high levels with a dominance of bears. External factors such as global risk asset sell-offs, a pullback in the US stock market, and a sideways strengthening of the US dollar index have heightened risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market. Bullish momentum is clearly insufficient, and prices are repeatedly pressured around the $66,000 mark. Short-term downside risks have not been fully released.

In-depth trend analysis (Technical + Fundamental + News)
(1) Technical: Clear key support and resistance levels
1. Short-term resistance levels: $67,000 (first resistance), $69,000 (strong resistance), $70,000 (psychological level)
2. Short-term support levels: $65,800 (intraday low), $63,800 (critical defense level), $62,500 (strong support)
3. Pattern judgment: The daily chart shows a oscillating downward trend, with a bearish moving average alignment, MACD diverging downward, and KDJ near oversold but without a clear rebound signal. In the short term, the market is mainly weak and oscillating, leaning bearish. If the support at $65,800 is broken, it is likely to test the $63,800 range.

(2) Fundamental: Macro environment suppresses the market
1. Global risk assets are simultaneously retreating; the sharp decline in the US stock market has triggered algorithmic trading to withdraw funds from highly volatile assets, with Bitcoin as the primary risk asset.
2. The US dollar index remains sideways and strong, exerting valuation pressure on dollar-denominated cryptocurrencies.
3. The leverage effect in the market is evident; recent contract liquidations remain high, dampening bullish confidence.
4. Capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has slowed, institutional buying strength has weakened, and there is a lack of sustained upward driving force.

(3) News: Mixed signals of bullish and bearish
1. Bearish: Tightening global crypto regulations, some countries strengthening virtual asset trading controls, and traditional financial funds flowing back into safe-haven assets.
2. Bullish: Long-term institutional allocation logic remains unchanged; many international investment banks still forecast Bitcoin’s year-end target price ($100,000–$150,000), and the halving expectation continues to be a long-term core positive factor.

Short-term trading strategies (for reference only, not investment advice)
1. Spot holders: Keep a light position and observe; avoid blindly bottom-fishing. Consider gradually adding positions only after the support zone of $63,800–$62,500 stabilizes.
2. Contract traders: Strictly control positions and stop-losses. A rebound near $67,000 can be used for light short positions with a stop at $69,000. If the price breaks below $65,800, short positions should be entered and exited quickly; avoid contrarian trades.
3. Position management: Do not exceed 30% of total capital; reserve sufficient funds to cope with volatility. Liquidity decreases before the Spring Festival, increasing the risk of sharp fluctuations.

Risk Warning
1. Bitcoin is a high-risk virtual asset with extreme price volatility; daily fluctuations exceeding 10% are common.
2. Global regulatory policies, macroeconomic conditions, US stock market trends, and the US dollar index will directly impact Bitcoin prices.
3. During the Spring Festival holiday, market liquidity declines, increasing the likelihood of flash crashes and extreme events.
4. This article is for market analysis and data sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions and bear their own risks.