Galaxy Futures: Under profit pressure, companies' willingness to maintain prices may provide certain support to caustic soda prices

Supply-side: The nationwide operating load rate of chlor-alkali enterprises has increased to 90.87%, with caustic soda production rising to 883,800 tons, indicating sufficient supply; only Inner Mongolia has tight supply sources, while other regions have resumed production due to maintenance, increasing supply pressure.
Demand-side: The operating rate of alumina capacity has fallen by 1.04 percentage points to 79.43%, viscose staple fiber operating rate remains steady at 84.34%, and overall downstream demand is flat with moderate willingness to accept deliveries.
Inventory: Shandong’s 32% liquid caustic soda inventory has slightly decreased by 0.44%, East China’s fused salt method caustic soda inventory has dropped significantly by 20.48%, but most regions’ enterprises still face certain inventory pressures.
Profitability: Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises have shifted from profit to loss; enterprises with self-owned power plants experienced an ECU loss of 0.88 yuan/ton, while those without self-owned power plants saw losses expand by 337.28%, indicating significant profit pressure.
Outlook: In the short term, the supply and demand contradiction in the caustic soda market is prominent. With ample supply and weak demand, it is expected that most markets for 32% liquid caustic soda will see slight price declines next week, except Inner Mongolia where tight supply may support stable or rising prices. Caustic soda prices are generally stable or declining. Key factors to monitor include changes in chlor-alkali enterprise inventories, alumina procurement dynamics, and plant maintenance status, as profit pressures may lead enterprises to resist price declines, providing some support to prices. (Galaxy Futures)