Bernstein: The Current Correction Is Just a "Crisis of Confidence," Bitcoin Still Heading Toward $150,000

The bullish outlook for Bitcoin remains solid as analysts suggest that the recent correction marks the weakest downtrend to date, reinforcing a price target of $150,000 by 2026 despite significant volatility and selling pressure driven by waning confidence.
Bernstein Reaffirms $150,000 Bitcoin Target, Signaling 2026 Bullish Outlook
Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain highly optimistic despite recent fluctuations. Research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated its $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026 on February 9, stating that the recent correction reflects more of a confidence dynamic than structural damage to the market.
Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, noted that the current dip is relatively mild compared to previous cycles characterized by leverage and institutional failures. They stated:
“What we are witnessing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in history.”
The analysts believe this decline is self-inflicted rather than system-driven, pointing to the absence of major exchange collapses, hidden leverage, or cascading pressures on balance sheets. They described: “When everything is favorable, the Bitcoin community creates a crisis of confidence itself. No explosions, no secrets exposed. The media returns to write obituaries. Time remains an unchanging circle for Bitcoin.”
The research team believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing participation from corporate asset management funds, and ongoing involvement from large asset managers have created clear distinctions between the current environment and previous downturns that led to prolonged crypto “winters.”
This optimistic assessment comes after a volatile trading period from February 2 to February 9. On February 5, Bitcoin dropped near $60,000, marking its lowest since October 2024 and triggering over $1 billion in liquidations amid a risk-averse global sentiment related to weakness in tech stocks and precious metals. A rapid recovery pushed prices back to around $70,000 before stalling, resulting in approximately a 15% weekly decline and trading below $70,000.
Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2033, based on the asset’s transition from a speculative tool led by retail investors to an alternative digital gold for reserve funds of institutions. This long-term target remains unchanged despite recent adjustments to the company’s medium-term outlook.
This projection is built on several core structural pillars, including expectations that spot ETF funds will manage around $3 trillion by 2033. The firm predicts these managed instruments will eventually absorb 15% of the circulating supply, creating a liquidity gap that drives exponential price growth.
Furthermore, the firm anticipates a significant shift where publicly listed corporations will adopt an active leverage model to replace traditional cash reserves with Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation. Ultimately, they argue that the four-year halving cycle is being replaced by a structural demand era, where institutional investment prevents the prolonged crypto downturns seen in the past.