The January interest rate cut is a certainty. The real highlight for Bitcoin lies in the new policy framework.

From the market outlook, the probability of a rate cut in January is only 4%, which means the pause in rate hikes is already a certainty. However, this result itself is not the main focus of market attention. During Powell’s awkward transition period of power handover, his policy influence has significantly diminished, and political space has been severely compressed. Trump’s team is observing the developments, and if Powell attempts to make moves during his final term, announcing a new candidate is also not impossible.

Powell’s Limited Influence During the Power Transition

Powell is in a “lame duck” situation, where any policy moves during this period will be overshadowed by the tendencies of his successor. His statements carry far less weight than before, and market attention to his policy declarations is waning. The redefinition of the Federal Reserve by the new administration is underway, gradually transforming Powell’s role from decision-maker to transitional figure.

The New Chair Candidate Becomes a Key Market Variable

What truly influences the market is the direction of the new Fed chair candidate. Among the candidates previously mentioned by Trump, there is a clear dovish tendency. If the new chair leans toward relatively loose monetary policy, it will have a far greater impact on risk assets like cryptocurrencies than the current FOMC meeting. Market focus has quietly shifted to changes in the policy expectation framework, rather than Powell’s final performance at the end of his term.

Bitcoin’s Driving Force Comes from Policy Expectations, Not Meeting Outcomes

Whether Bitcoin can continue its upward surge depends mainly on the direction of policy expectations, not the results of this FOMC meeting. After the new government takes office, the entire Federal Reserve’s monetary policy framework may face restructuring. This fundamental policy shift is the real variable that rewrites the game rules. Although the March dot plot will release data, its reference value is limited in the context of potential policy framework adjustments.

What the market needs is not revisions to the current chair’s policy expectations, but forward-looking pricing of the new policy framework. During this transition cycle, Bitcoin, as a risk asset, will directly reflect investors’ expectations of the new policy environment.