The market is choosing its direction amid hesitation

Currently, BTC is in a typical critical zone between bulls and bears: technical indicators are approaching a breakout, sentiment is warming, but macro variables still exist. This stage is most prone to sharp fluctuations and "false moves."
From a cyclical perspective, a true trend usually starts with three signals: a pullback that does not break key support, a stepwise increase in trading volume, and altcoins beginning to rally. Currently, only some of these are met, indicating that the market is still in the confirmation stage.
ETF and institutional fund flows are worth close observation. Long-term funds determine the depth of the trend, while short-term funds only amplify volatility. If net inflows continue, it indicates that large funds are positioning for the next cycle.
Interestingly, during the early stages of a trend, most people tend to doubt; when consensus turns bullish, the market often approaches a high point. The market always rises amid divergence and ends amid consensus.
My inclination is: the medium-term structure remains bullish, but short-term volatility is increasing. A straight, one-sided rally is unhealthy; oscillations that raise the overall level are more conducive to long-term growth.
For ordinary investors, it’s better to focus on discipline than on guessing the direction. Getting the trend right is rewarded; having a plan for mistakes is essential for survival.
One sentence summary: The market won’t rise just because of expectations, but it will reward those who are well-prepared.
#比特币反弹