Parabolic Weekly Bridge: When to Sell Off Crypto and Market Sentiment to Avoid Overall Market Risks

Parabolic rallies on rare assets during the month-end week of January have become a lesson in market volatility and investor psychology. As Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem face liquidation pressures, a series of macroeconomic factors have caused capital flows to shift, creating a notably complex market landscape. This week’s OTC report (January 22-28, 2026) analyzes the drivers behind this sell-off and long-term ideas about where these assets might go next.

Verifying the Parabolic Peak: From Precious Metals to Crypto

Bitcoin has remained sluggish since mid-November after dropping below the psychological $100,000 level. Repeated tests of the lower boundary of the channel failed to produce sustainable recoveries as hoped, instead increasing the likelihood of a subsequent collapse. Conversely, precious metals and silver exhibited strong upward volatility, forming clear parabolic shapes, with gold reaching $5,600 and silver surpassing $120—both hitting all-time highs. Interestingly, this optimism did not extend to Bitcoin, which remains sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds including President Trump’s tariff announcements targeting the EU and Canada.

Thursday: A Chain of Events Shifting Market Sentiment

Microsoft’s earnings report after Wednesday opened a series of events culminating in a blood-red Thursday (January 22). Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates, high capital expenditure guidance for AI raised concerns among investors about the actual profitability of large-scale AI investments. Microsoft fell about 10%, exerting pressure on most related tech stocks, with Meta as an exception. Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions triggered a flight to safety, pushing oil, gold, and silver prices sharply higher before forming a parabolic peak.

However, this parabolic price action was short-lived. Gold and silver subsequently declined 8-10%, exerting broader market pressure. Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem absorbed these shocks aggressively, breaking the previously critical support level of $84,000. Failing to quickly recover this level opened the door to declines toward $80,000 and even lower, down to $74,600 from April 2025. As of February 9, Bitcoin is trading around $69.04K, reflecting a deeper dip from January’s highs.

Short-Term Outlook: When Liquidation Pressure Overwhelms

Current conditions remain challenging, with liquidation pressures from large funds accelerating sell-offs. Bitcoin now shows a high correlation with US tech stocks during risk-sensitive periods, while crypto ETF funds continue to see outflows. This capital shift signals a decline in investor interest compared to assets focused on AI innovation.

Another notable phenomenon is Bitcoin miners reorienting their infrastructure toward AI applications and high-performance computing. Mining difficulties have decreased over 4% in the past 30 days, indicating a temporary capital shift and market narrative away from crypto. This scenario suggests that in the near term, the crypto market will continue to face macroeconomic headwinds and global capital reallocations.

Long-Term Outlook: Foundations Remain Strong

Despite the short-term gloom, we remain optimistic about Bitcoin and digital assets over the long haul. Several macro structural factors support this view: global liquidity conditions are expected to improve, crypto applications in PayFi and Real-World Assets (RWA) are expanding, the spillover potential from precious metals driven by a weakening dollar, and significant progress in regulatory frameworks in the US and internationally. We believe these foundations will ultimately restore capital flows and growth momentum across the entire crypto ecosystem.

Weekly Economic Event Chain (January 22-28, 2026): Macro Context

Thursday, January 22:
The US reports Q3 2025 GDP growth of 4.4% (QoQ), surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.3% and accelerating from 3.8% in Q2. Initial jobless claims stand at 200,000, below the forecast of 209,000, while continuing claims decrease to 1,849,000 from 1,875,000, signaling a resilient labor market. The PCE Price Index and Core PCE Price Index both grew 2.8% year-over-year in November, in line with market expectations.

Friday, January 23:
Japan’s core CPI rises 2.4% YoY in December, slowing from 3.0% in November. The Bank of Japan maintains its policy rate at 0.75%. BoJ revises its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 (ending March 2026) up to 0.9% from 0.7%, and raises its GDP outlook for fiscal year 2026 to 1.0% from 0.7%.

Monday, January 26:
US durable goods orders increase 5.3% MoM in November, beating the consensus estimate of 3.1%.

Tuesday, January 27:
Conference Board Consumer Confidence drops to 84.5 in January from 94.2 in December, missing the forecast of 90.6.

Wednesday, January 28:
Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25%. The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate at 3.75%. In the press conference, Chair Powell refrains from providing specific guidance on the rate path, avoiding comments on USD volatility and related government issues.

Recent Data:

• Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,04K (February 9, 2026), down 2.86% in 24 hours
• Circulating market cap: $1379.96B

The parabolic rally has formed and collapsed, but lessons about global capital shifts remain. The long-term journey for crypto is still ahead.