Bitcoin and Traditional Asset Correlation Analysis: Why Is Its Linkage with Gold Extremely Low?

When we calculate the return correlation between Bitcoin and gold since 2019, we find that their correlation coefficient is only 0.14, indicating almost no correlation. Another set of data shows that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold is around -0.37.

Analysis indicates that the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, is forming a completely different trend from traditional assets. This low correlation is not accidental but is determined by their fundamentally different market attributes and driving factors.

Market Status: Different Logic Behind Synchronized Rises

The global financial markets in February 2026 present a complex picture. On February 9th, the international precious metals market performed strongly, with spot gold prices continuing to rise, gaining 1.66% intraday and breaking through several key levels.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency market also showed strong momentum. Bitcoin’s price once broke $72,000, with an intraday increase of 4.27%, significantly outperforming gold.

On the surface, both asset classes seem to be experiencing a bull market, but the driving factors behind them are vastly different.

Gold’s rise is more influenced by traditional economic factors, including market expectations of Federal Reserve policies, inflation concerns, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases. In contrast, Bitcoin’s rise is driven more by internal factors within the cryptocurrency market.

Data Analysis: Evidence of Low Correlation Between Gold and Bitcoin

Using data from the professional analytics platform Newhedge, we can clearly see the correlation performance between Bitcoin and gold. The latest data shows a correlation coefficient of about -0.37, indicating a slight negative correlation.

The well-known investment firm ARK Invest’s CEO Cathie Wood recently pointed out that, by calculating the return correlation between Bitcoin and gold since 2019, the correlation coefficient is only 0.14, which can be considered almost uncorrelated.

Below are the analysis results from different sources regarding their correlation:

This low correlation phenomenon is not accidental but is determined by the inherent properties of the two assets and market structure differences. The fluctuations in the correlation coefficient itself also indicate the dynamic changes in their relationship.

Fundamental Differences: Comparing Market Attributes of Gold and Bitcoin

Bitcoin is often called “digital gold” in the market, but this analogy is more based on their shared scarcity. In reality, gold and Bitcoin have fundamental differences across multiple dimensions.

Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has been recognized by global markets for thousands of years. Its price fluctuations are usually closely related to economic cycles, geopolitical risks, and monetary policies.

In contrast, Bitcoin has only a little over a decade of history. It is essentially a digital asset based on blockchain technology, with its price more influenced by technological innovation, market sentiment, regulatory environment, and adoption rates.

The gold market is highly mature and institutionalized, while the cryptocurrency market is still rapidly developing, with a higher proportion of individual investors, leading to more volatile prices. This structural difference determines that the logic and driving forces behind their price formation are completely different.

Driving Factors: Completely Different Market Catalysts

Gold price fluctuations are often closely related to macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation rate, real interest rate, US dollar exchange rate, and global geopolitical risks. For example, from late January to early February 2026, gold experienced a rollercoaster market, which was closely related to changes in market expectations of Federal Reserve policies.

Bitcoin’s price, on the other hand, is more affected by internal factors within the cryptocurrency space. The technological development of the Bitcoin network itself, regulatory changes, mainstream institutional adoption, and market sentiment indicators (such as the Fear and Greed Index) have a more direct impact on its price.

Particularly noteworthy is Bitcoin’s “halving” mechanism (which occurs approximately every four years, reducing block rewards by half) and its fixed total supply of 21 million coins, providing it with unique endogenous drivers that do not exist in traditional assets.

Investment Insights: Portfolio Strategies Under Low Correlation

The low correlation between Bitcoin and gold holds significant value for investors. Ray Dalio has called diversification the “Holy Grail of Investing”—he believes that by combining 15 to 20 uncorrelated streams of returns, one can significantly reduce risk without lowering expected returns.

This low correlation means that including both gold and Bitcoin in a portfolio can achieve more effective risk diversification. When traditional financial markets are turbulent, gold may perform well due to its safe-haven properties; meanwhile, during new economic cycles driven by technology, Bitcoin may generate excess returns thanks to its innovative nature.

However, it is important to note that market environment changes can alter their correlation. For example, during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in March 2020, both Bitcoin and gold experienced a synchronized decline, showing a rare short-term correlation.

Summary

In the rapidly changing financial markets, the low correlation between Bitcoin and gold has become an undeniable feature. When gold breaks through $5000 per ounce, attracting traditional investors seeking wealth preservation, Bitcoin also rises to $72,000 at the same time, demonstrating the independent rhythm of the digital asset market.

This difference is not a temporary market phenomenon but stems from their completely different genes: gold carries the value consensus accumulated over thousands of years, while Bitcoin represents an innovative narrative of the digital age. Understanding the essence of this low correlation may be key to building the next generation of diversified investment portfolios.

On the Gate platform, you can clearly track the real-time performance and dynamic relationship of these two assets, providing the most timely data support for your investment decisions.