Corn Market Penny Board Signals Recovery as Tuesday Opens with Gains

The corn futures market showed resilience on Tuesday morning, with penny-level advances marking a recovery from the prior session’s decline. After shedding 1 to 2.25 cents on Monday, the market bounced back on Tuesday with modest gains of approximately one penny across most front-month contracts, signaling renewed buying interest among traders.

Tuesday Morning Penny Gains Reverse Monday’s Retreat

Open interest metrics reflected mixed signals in the trading pit, with preliminary figures showing a net decline of 2,400 contracts overall. However, this masked divergent movement among contract months—March experienced notable selling pressure with 8,571 contracts liquidated, while other delivery months saw accumulating positions. The national cash corn market, tracked by CmdtyView, posted a price of $3.91 1/4 per bushel, representing a 2.25-cent decline from the previous day. Despite the weakness, the penny gains on futures Tuesday morning suggested traders were selectively accumulating positions ahead of key supply reports.

Export Momentum Drives Corn Market Outlook

Recent export activity provided fundamental support for the penny gains observed in Tuesday trading. The USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service tallied corn export shipments at 1.51 million metric tons during the most recent week, a 1.63% increase from the prior week and significantly ahead of the 20.74% year-over-year comparison. Mexico dominated the destination list with 402,936 MT of shipments, followed by 265,122 MT headed to Japan and 210,763 MT to Spain. These figures underscore robust international demand for U.S. corn supplies.

The 2025/26 marketing year has accumulated 31.437 million metric tons in export shipments since September 1, substantially outpacing last year’s pace by 53.35%. Export sales commitments stand at 56.045 million metric tons, representing 69% of the USDA’s record export forecast—ahead of the historical 65% pace. This positioning suggests the market’s penny board advances reflect confidence in stronger-than-expected demand trajectories.

Brazil’s Harvest Timeline and Global Supply Watch

Brazilian corn production data provided additional context for global supply dynamics. AgRural’s latest assessments indicate the center-south region’s first corn crop reached just 5% harvested as of late January, ahead of the 2.2% pace observed during the same period last year. The second crop progress lagged slightly at 4.7% planted, trailing the accelerated 8.6% pace from 2024/25.

Despite the mixed harvest timing, AgRural raised its full-country corn crop estimate by 600,000 metric tons to 136.6 million metric tons total. This adjustment reflects expectations of robust yields and confirmed Brazil’s position as a significant factor in global corn balances, potentially tempering any extended penny gains from supply tightness concerns.

Current Pricing Structure Across Contract Months

The corn futures complex displayed the typical penny-level volatility across the March, May, and July 2026 delivery months. March 26 corn contracts closed at $4.28 1/4, down 2.25 cents from the prior session but showing penny gains during Tuesday’s session. May 26 corn finished at $4.36, having surrendered 2 cents overnight before recovering penny advances intraday. July 26 contracts settled at $4.42, down 1.75 cents from the close but also participating in Tuesday morning’s penny board rally.

These modest intraday recoveries across the contract spectrum reflect typical portfolio adjustments and suggest the market continues to digest competing fundamental forces between strong export demand and expanding global supplies from major producing regions like Brazil.