January 31 BTC Technical Overview: Short-term bearish, medium-term consolidation, long-term trend intact; key levels at 81,000 (strong support), 86,000 (bull-bear boundary), 90,000 (strong resistance).

I. Real-time Market (January 31, 12:00, UTC+8)

- Price: $83,900, intra-day -2.66%, weekly -6.06%
- Catalysts: Metal flash crash + Fed hawkish expectations + algorithmic sell-off, briefly touched low at 81,000
- Volume: Significantly increased, panic selling surging, frequent liquidations

II. Key Technical Indicators

- Trend (Daily): Broken below the 50-day moving average, still above the 200-day moving average; short-term bearish, medium-term consolidating
- RSI (Daily): 38, approaching oversold, rebound probability rising but trend remains weak
- MACD (Daily): Histogram turning negative, bearish momentum strengthening, watch for divergence signals
- Support/Resistance: 81,000 (strong support) → 86,000 (bull-bear boundary) → 90,000 (strong resistance)

III. Trading Strategies (Actionable)

1. Short-term (Intraday):
- Rebound to 86,000-87,000 encountering resistance, short at this level, stop-loss at 88,000, target 82,000-81,000
- Stabilize at 81,000 with light long positions, stop-loss at 80,000, target 84,000-85,000
2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks):
- Build positions gradually at 81,000-83,000, stop-loss at 79,000, target 88,000-90,000
- Break through 90,000, retest for confirmation, then add positions, target 95,000+
3. Risk Management:
- Position size ≤30%, single trade stop-loss ≤2%
- Monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions and ETF fund flows, beware of black swans

IV. Time Cycle Perspectives

- Short-term (1-3 days): Defense of 81,000, if stabilized then rebound to 86,000, if broken, watch for 78,000-80,000
- Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Consolidation within 81,000-90,000, awaiting directional choice
- Long-term (1-3 months): Halving narrative support, 200-day moving average unbroken, trend not reversed

V. Operational Priorities

1. First observe the validity of 81,000 support, avoid rushing to bottom-fish
2. Rebound to 86,000-87,000, consider partial profit-taking or short positions
3. If 81,000 stabilizes, try light long positions with strict stop-loss