Standard Chartered: US banks will lose $500 billion due to stablecoins - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Standard Chartered: US Banks Will Lose $500 Billion Due to Stablecoins

The outflow of deposits from American banks into “stablecoins” could reach $500 billion by the end of 2028, reports The Block citing a report from Standard Chartered.

Financial institution analysts view the widespread adoption of stablecoins as an increasing structural risk for TradFi.

The projected amount is about one-third of the expected segment capitalization of $2 trillion. This estimate aligns with the bank’s previous forecast of potentially transferring $1 trillion in deposits from developing countries into digital dollar equivalents.

Jeffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research, noted that risks are intensifying as payments transition to blockchain. An additional uncertainty factor remains delays in passing the Clarity Act, which is necessary to regulate the industry in the US.

“This issue has brought large banks face-to-face with Coinbase,” — the expert said.

The exchange did not support the latest version of the document, as its new revision renders the issuance and storage of stablecoins meaningless. Conversely, Bank of America’s head warned of risks to the traditional sector: if interest accrual on such assets is permitted, banks could lose up to $6 trillion.

Standard Chartered believes that discussions in Washington merely confirm the thesis that transparent regulation accelerates the mass adoption of new financial instruments.

Regional Bank Vulnerability

To assess risks, analysts used the ratio of net interest income to total revenue. Experts believe this indicator best reflects the consequences of capital outflows.

Kendrick explained that deposits form the basis of interest margin. Their shift into stablecoins will exert direct pressure on financial organizations’ income.

Research conclusions:

• Regional US banks are the most vulnerable due to high dependence on deposit financing;
• Diversified banks face moderate risk;
• Investment banks and brokers are the least affected by the trend, as their income is weakly linked to deposits.

Share of interest income in total revenue of various US banks. Source: Standard Chartered.## Structural Threats

The report highlights factors increasing the risk of liquidity outflows. The largest issuers — Tether and Circle — hold only a small portion of reserves in bank accounts. This limits capital return to the traditional financial system.

According to Standard Chartered, two-thirds of stablecoin demand is driven by emerging markets, while developed markets account for only a third. This imbalance explains the forecasted $500 billion loss for US banks and other leading economies.

Kendrick warned of the uneven nature of the consequences. The resilience of specific banks will depend on their ability to restructure financing models and integrate with tokenized infrastructure.

In addition to reducing the deposit base, analysts point to threats to non-interest income related to the growth of the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) sector.

The current supply of dollar stablecoins exceeds $300 billion. Implementing the Standard Chartered scenario would triple this figure — by 2028, the market would approach $2 trillion.

Recall that Tether has issued USAT — a federally regulated “stablecoin” for the US market.