【BTC 1H Structure Analysis | Oversold Test in a Bearish Trend】

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Short-term Trend Qualitative: Bearish structure intact, testing key support
BTC maintains a clear and complete bearish trend structure on the 1-hour timeframe. The price is below all major moving averages, with short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) showing a steep downward trajectory, indicating that short-term downside momentum still dominates. The current price is testing the recent low around $89,200, and whether this level holds or breaks will provide insights into short-term market sentiment.

Key Technical Levels and Structure

1. Core Support Below: $87,723 is an important recent technical low, forming the lower boundary of the current downward channel. Prior to this, the $88,700-$89,200 zone served as a recent consolidation platform's lower boundary, providing initial support.
2. Dynamic Resistance Above: The moving average system creates multiple layers of resistance. The $90,150-$90,400 zone (around MA10) is the nearest resistance area, and a breakout above it could ease immediate downward pressure. Stronger resistance is at $92,100-$92,300 (MA20 and previous support level).
3. Moving Average Arrangement: MA5 (89,173) exerts tight resistance on the price, while MA10 (90,383) crossing below MA20 (92,130) forms a death cross, confirming a weakening short-term trend. MA30 (93,143) and higher moving averages form a medium- to long-term resistance zone.

Momentum Indicators Interpretation and Signals

1. Downward Momentum Confirmation: The MACD lines continue to diverge below the zero axis, with DIF dropping to -1,437.9, and the histogram (MACD: -352.8) remaining extended, clearly confirming that bearish momentum on the 1-hour level is still being released.
2. Oversold Condition Hint: RSI reads 27.7, entering oversold territory. This typically indicates that short-term selling may be excessive, with an inherent potential for technical rebound correction. However, in a trending decline, confirmation requires RSI and price to form a clear bullish divergence, which would strengthen the signal.
3. Volume Observation: During the decline, volume did not show sustained abnormal expansion, indicating that this move is driven more by trend inertia and stop-loss triggers rather than panic selling on a large scale.

Market Outlook and Key Observation Points
The market is in a “trend continuation versus oversold rebound” phase. Future developments should focus on two aspects:

· Possibility of a rebound from oversold levels: If the price finds support in the $88,700-$89,200 zone and RSI remains oversold, a technical rebound towards the resistance area of $90,000-$90,500 could occur. The strength of this move will test the resilience of the bears.
· Key to trend continuation: If the price effectively breaks below $88,700, it indicates that the current oversold condition is being overtaken by a strong trend, potentially forming a continuation pattern. The market is likely to test support levels at $87,700 and possibly lower.

(BTC 1H structure enters a critical battle zone. Subscribers can access the “Real-time Long-Short Momentum Ratio” chart and “Key Price Order Book” depth data to better grasp short-term turning points.)