Ethereum price: aggressive selling but rebound near $3,000 still on the table

The current Ethereum market phase combines downward pressure, a defensive macro environment, and still manageable volatility, with a possible reaction above $3,000.

ETH/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50, and volume loading=“lazy” />ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50, and volume.

Main bias from Daily (D1): slightly bearish scenario but not compromised

The daily is classified as a “neutral” regime, but the details tell a market that is losing upward traction.

Price vs EMA (20, 50, 200) – momentum under pressure

– Close D1: $3,098.73 – EMA20: $3,179.36 – EMA50: $3,163.29 – EMA200: $3,294.63

The price is below all three EMAs. This is not yet a confirmed bear market, but it means that the short-term (EMA20), medium-term (EMA50), and long-term (EMA200) act as dynamic resistances overhead, with a bearish cushion of $80–$200.

In practice: those buying now are going against the average momentum. Additionally, rebounds toward $3,180–$3,200 have a higher probability of encountering sellers rather than aggressive buyers.

RSI Daily – unloading phase, but not panic yet

– RSI14 D1: 45.7

The RSI is below 50 but far from oversold. We are in a correction zone, not capitulation. The kind of excess that often precedes violent rebounds is not yet present. However, it’s clear that the buying momentum of the previous trend has exhausted itself.

In practice: the strength is not weak enough to offer a “dream dip,” but not strong enough to justify aggressive long entries solely on the daily.

MACD Daily – gradual loss of bullish momentum

– MACD line: 45.62 – Signal: 52.56 – Histogram: -6.95

The MACD line has fallen below the signal, and the histogram is negative: the previous bullish cycle is cooling off. We’re not seeing a vertical crash, but a slow rotation of momentum downward.

In practice: buyers are still defending the field but no longer leading the game. Every recovery attempt risks being sold until this bearish crossover is absorbed.

Bollinger Bands Daily – price toward the lower corridor

– Median band (20): $3,188.58 – Upper band: $3,390.67 – Lower band: $2,986.48 – Close: $3,098.73

Ethereum is below the median band and sliding toward the lower part of the channel, but has not yet touched the lower band.

In practice: the price is in the lower half of the volatility range. Historically, this zone either triggers a technical rebound toward the median ($3,180–$3,200), or the market accelerates and “breaks” the lower band for a more emotional sell-off phase below $3,000.

ATR Daily – normal volatility, but not dormant

– ATR14 D1: $109.93

A typical daily bar is around $110. We are in a regime of moderate volatility: enough to produce interesting swings but far from panic conditions.

In practice: movements of +/- $100 in a day are absolutely normal in this context. Too tight stops are easily wiped out.

Pivot Daily – slightly losing balance below the point of control

– Pivot (PP): $3,128.13 – R1: $3,171.10 – S1: $3,055.77

The price is slightly below the pivot but not far. The first real intraday support level with daily scope is around $3,055–$3,060.

In practice: as long as ETH remains below $3,128, the intraday flow tends to be controlled by sellers. Any rebounds toward $3,170 are natural areas where short-term traders can monetize.

Daily summary: main bias slightly bearish/corrective. It’s not yet a long-term reversal, but for now, the field favors those selling rebounds rather than buying dips.

H1: aggressive selling, technical oversold, and short squeeze risk

If the daily is corrective but still neutral on the long term, the hourly is openly bearish. Here, selling pressure is clearly visible, perhaps even excessively.

Price vs EMA on H1 – short-term downtrend already structured

– Close H1: $3,098.75 – EMA20: $3,172.92 – EMA50: $3,218.67 – EMA200: $3,241.08

The price is well below all hourly EMAs, with significant gaps, especially compared to EMA50 and EMA200. The H1 trend is a well-defined decline, with decreasing highs and lows.

In practice: those only watching the hourly see a clean short trend, where the dominant strategy is to sell every pullback toward the averages. However, such wide distances also start to set the stage for violent technical rebounds if sellers overdo it.

RSI H1 – deep oversold, short-term excess signal

– RSI14 H1: 17.86

RSI below 20 on H1 indicates heavy oversold conditions. Sellers are pushing strongly, but often from these zones, the additional downside without intermediate rebounds diminishes.

In practice: the bearish trend exists, but the timing to enter new shorts is unfavorable. Those already short have good profits but also increasing risk of short squeeze and quick rebound.

MACD H1 – fully active bearish momentum

– MACD line: -32.83 – Signal: -24.98 – Histogram: -7.85

The line is below the signal, and the histogram is markedly negative: the selling movement is still in momentum, not in an evident exhaustion phase from MACD.

In practice: RSI and MACD conflict here: the first indicates excess selling, the second says the move isn’t over yet. It’s a typical strong but mature trend context, where each further leg down becomes fragile.

Bollinger Bands H1 – price pressed toward the lower limit

– Median band: $3,183.09 – Upper band: $3,261.34 – Lower band: $3,104.84 – Close: $3,098.75

The price is essentially outside or at the lower band.

In practice: this is textbook price action of exhaustion: the market pushes beyond normal volatility range. It can extend a bit more, but historically, such zones are not ideal for opening new directional shorts. They are areas where a classic return to the median band often begins.

ATR and pivot H1 – short-term and micro key levels of volatility

– ATR14 H1: $24.3 – Pivot H1: $3,101.43 – R1: $3,106.12 – S1: $3,094.07

The average hourly volatility is about $24, and the price is just below the pivot, with nearby support around $3,094.

In practice: we are in a micro-intraday support zone. A clean break below $3,094 with volume could extend the decline. Conversely, a recovery above $3,101–$3,106 could trigger that bounce toward the EMAs that the oversold RSI is suggesting.

15 minutes: extended downward price, end of movement phase but not yet reversed

The 15m is only for timing, and the message here is simple: the selling phase is extended but has not yet built a clear base.

EMA on 15m – bearish structure, but wide distance from short-term fair value

– Close m15: $3,098.82 – EMA20: $3,132.94 – EMA50: $3,162.89 – EMA200: $3,222.81

The price is well below all EMAs, especially far from EMA200.

In practice: the very short-term trend is short and clear but already stretched. Any liquidity spike can generate a quick return at least toward the EMA20 of 15m (area $3,130) without changing the structural picture.

RSI and MACD 15m – sales still under control but no new breakdown

– RSI14 m15: 29.38 – MACD line: -21.87 – Signal: -19.07 – Histogram: -2.80

The RSI is below 30 but not as extreme as on the hourly. MACD remains negative with a weak histogram.

In practice: sales still dominate, but the pace is slightly slowing. This is often a prelude to a sideways consolidation phase or a small technical rebound rather than an immediate new collapse.

Bollinger Bands and pivot 15m – very narrow operational range

– Median band: $3,138.47 – Lower band: $3,080.36 – Pivot m15: $3,101.46 – R1: $3,106.16 – S1: $3,094.11

The price is just below the pivot with the lower band around $3,080.

In practice: the 15m captures a micro-range of $3,080–$3,110 where the intraday battle is playing out. Breaking one of these extremes, the next move tends to be quick relative to typical short-term volatility.

Ethereum price scenarios: what to watch now

Bullish scenario (technical rebound first, then possibly structural recovery)

The bullish thesis in this context does not start from a trend change on the daily but from an idea of short-term oversold conditions, especially on H1. The first step is a technical recovery, not a new bull market.

How to build the bullish scenario:

1. Defense of the $3,050–$3,080 daily and intraday area: this zone is close to the daily S1 ($3,055) and the lower Bollinger band on H1/H15. If prices stop making new lows below these levels and start consolidating, it’s the first sign that the sell-off phase is tiring.
2. Recovery of intraday pivots ($3,100–$3,110) and return toward $3,150–$3,180: a stable rebound above H1/m15 pivots and an approach to EMA20 H1 around $3,170–$3,180 would indicate buyers are reappearing, at least for a bounce.
3. Daily confirmation above the pivot $3,128: daily closes above the pivot and toward Bollinger median ($3,188) would shift the bias from corrective bearish to a neutral range with support held.

Price targets in the bullish scenario:

– First target: area $3,170–$3,200 (EMA20 D1 / R1 daily). It’s a zone where profit-taking from those who bought the lows can be expected. – Second target (only if market sentiment improves): $3,250–$3,300, toward EMA200 daily ($3,294). Here, a narrative shift from simple rebound to trend recovery is possible.

Invalidation of the bullish scenario: – Multiple hourly closes below $3,050 and especially a daily close below $3,000, near the lower Bollinger band on D1, would turn this deep pullback phase into a structural break. In that case, focus shifts to lower supports, and the rebound would be just a breath within a broader bearish trend.

Bearish scenario (continuation of the correction wave)

The bearish thesis relies on all relevant EMAs being above the price and macro sentiment in fear mode with increasing BTC dominance. Here, the idea is that any rebound will be sold and that ETH will form a descending medium-term high structure.

How the bearish scenario develops:

1. Failure of rebounds toward $3,150–$3,180: if recovery attempts toward EMA20 H1 and daily pivots are systematically sold, it means the big players are distributing on the rallies.
2. Clear break below $3,050–$3,000: a break accompanied by volume and H1/H4 closes below $3,000 would push the price beyond the lower Bollinger band on D1, opening space for a deeper correction.
3. Maintaining the price below the daily pivot ($3,128) for multiple sessions: if Ethereum remains stably below the daily pivot for several days, the market is accepting lower levels as the new normal.

Price targets in the bearish scenario:

– First step: area $2,980–$3,000, right in the lower Bollinger band zone on D1, where initial defense attempts often occur. – Subsequent steps (if crypto sentiment worsens further): extensions toward $2,900–$2,850, a psychological area and likely liquidity cluster below the round figure of $3,000.

Invalidation of the bearish scenario: – A decisive recovery above $3,200 with daily closes above EMA20 and a stable return above $3,250 would start to invalidate the deep correction narrative. It would also shift the outlook toward a possible consolidation range of $3,200–$3,400.

How to read Ethereum’s price now

In summary, the daily shows an orderly correction, the hourly indicates aggressive selling and oversold conditions, and the 15m describes a phase of possible short-term exhaustion. The signals are therefore mixed.

Structure: favoring shorts as long as ETH remains below daily EMAs.

Timing: high risk of entering late on the downside on H1/H15, with a strong probability of quick technical rebounds.

Macro sentiment: moderate fear and flow toward BTC and stablecoins do not help alts, but we are not yet in full panic.

For those following Ethereum price, the critical point now is simple: whether or not the $3,000 area holds. Above this threshold, we are still talking about correction within a broad neutral-bullish context. Below $3,000, especially with daily confirmations, the situation changes in quality, and the market would start pricing more defensive scenarios in the medium term.

In any case, the volatility level (ATR daily about $110) demands caution in sizing positions and stops. Additionally, the market can easily move 3–4% in a few sessions without this alone indicating a trend change.

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This analysis is for informational and editorial purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a public savings solicitation, or an investment invitation. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky: anyone considering operations on Ethereum or other digital assets should do so independently, with full awareness, and if necessary, with the support of a qualified professional.