Interest rate games are becoming the biggest suspense in the current crypto market. JPMorgan's recent forecast has caused a stir among traders: the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% this year, and the actual rate hikes won't happen until Q3 2027 — a view that clashes sharply with mainstream market sentiment.

On the other hand, many crypto traders and institutions are betting heavily on the opposite scenario. They believe the Fed will cut rates twice this year, and their reasoning is not unfounded. Historically, for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, a loose monetary cycle often serves as the strongest catalyst for a bull market. FXTM analysts point out that once rate cuts are implemented and circulation further contracts, the foundation for Bitcoin's rebound in 2026 will be quite solid. Some even hope that after Powell's departure in May, the successor will adopt a more dovish policy stance.

But data doesn't lie. The hard facts held by JPMorgan are clear: in December last year, the US unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, and the labor market is expected to tighten further in Q2, while inflation is falling at a pace much slower than expected. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have also become more cautious, delaying their first rate cut window until after June. Another detail worth noting is that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%, which would actually reinforce the case for rate hikes. Only when the labor market shows clear signs of weakness or inflation drops sharply might the door to rate cuts truly open.

Currently, Bitcoin stands at a critical level of $92,000, with one side representing institutional hawkish expectations and the other the bulls' hopes for rate cuts. The market is showing a delicate balance. Whether JPMorgan's rate hike trajectory aligns more with reality or the crypto community's hopes for a loosening cycle will depend on upcoming economic data and policy developments. Whether Bitcoin can break new highs amid this divergence in interest rates remains the most pressing question for investors.