Five consecutive days of outflows interrupted: Bitcoin ETF shows net inflow again, is the market turning around?

Bitcoin’s price today is displayed at $95,459.4, up 4.51% over the past 24 hours. As traditional financial institutions continue to deepen their involvement in the crypto market into early 2026, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has become an important market sentiment indicator.

After experiencing a phase in 2025 where fundamentals and price performance diverged, the crypto market is now entering a new round of adjustment. While the market is still digesting the net outflow data of nearly $750 million for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the first week of 2026, the latest capital flow signals are showing different indications.

Capital Flow Reversal

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) experienced a turnaround on January 13, 2026, after five consecutive days of outflows. The previous week saw a total net outflow of $749.6 million for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which had caused short-term market concerns.

During the continuous outflow period, January 10 saw the largest single-day outflow. On that day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $250 million, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust experiencing a $252 million outflow. This outflow was not an isolated event. In November and December 2025, spot BTC ETFs had a combined net outflow of approximately $4.57 billion, with December alone seeing about $1.09 billion in net outflows. Market observers noted that while retail investors panicked and sold off above $93,000, institutional investors were net buyers, with a single-day net purchase of $471 million on January 2.

Institutional Actions Analysis

Behind this capital movement is a strategic rebalancing and long-term allocation by institutional investors. BlackRock’s iBit fund, as the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, holds approximately 770,800 BTC. Market analysis indicates that recent outflows mainly reflect portfolio rebalancing by institutions rather than a questioning of Bitcoin’s long-term value.

It is noteworthy that although BlackRock’s IBIT experienced a $252 million outflow on January 10, Fidelity’s FBTC fund saw an inflow of $7.9 million. This divergence suggests different institutional investors are reacting differently to short-term market fluctuations.

Market Structure Shift

Institutional participation in the crypto market continues to increase. Data shows that by early 2026, institutions hold nearly 24% of Bitcoin holdings, with market pricing power gradually shifting from retail investors to institutions. This trend is corroborated by actions from traditional financial institutions. Morgan Stanley plans to allow advisors to allocate 0-4% of client portfolios to Bitcoin ETFs starting January 1, 2026.

Meanwhile, retail crypto trading via E-Trade is expected to go live in the first half of 2026. These developments mean a broader investor base will be able to participate in the crypto market through traditional channels.

Policy and Regulatory Environment

Changes in policy environment are creating new opportunities for digital assets. Bitcoin has gained recognition as a strategic reserve asset in the US, a significant policy shift from a few years ago. On the regulatory front, the Clarity Act is expected to pass in the first quarter of 2026, with broader crypto legislation also being signed early in the year. These developments provide clearer regulatory frameworks, reducing compliance risks for institutional investors.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies is also subtly evolving. While the SEC remains cautious about complex crypto derivatives, it has issued a series of exemptions that pave the way for pilot projects by banks.

Emergence of Innovative Financial Products

Traditional financial institutions are developing more financial products related to digital assets. JPMorgan has submitted a new structured Bitcoin note proposal to the SEC. This product, based on BlackRock’s $69 billion iShares Bitcoin Trust, allows investors to leverage up to 1.5 times the Bitcoin gains.

If Bitcoin’s price does not reach the trigger condition before December 21, 2026, the investment period will automatically extend to 2028, with no upper limit on returns during this period.

Mainstream Asset Performance

As of January 14, 2026, major cryptocurrencies are performing steadily. Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $95,459.4, with a market cap of $1.9 trillion, accounting for 55.99% of the market. It has increased by 4.51% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $3,336.54, with a market cap of $401.45 billion, representing 11.79% of the market, up 7.54% over the last 24 hours.

As an important component of the Gate platform ecosystem, GateToken (GT) is currently priced at $10.79, with a market cap of $1.07 billion, representing 0.094% of the market, and has risen 4.76% in the past 24 hours.

Long-term Outlook

K33 Research, in its “2025 Year in Review” report, expresses a constructive bullish outlook for 2026, predicting Bitcoin will outperform stocks and gold. Analysts believe that regulatory victories will have a greater positive impact than capital allocation effects. On a macro level, it is expected that Trump will appoint a dovish Federal Reserve Chair, favoring expansionary policies over tightening, creating a “loose” environment beneficial for scarce assets like Bitcoin.

Supply-side forecasts also support a bullish view. The supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years is expected to end its decline and rebound above 12.16 million by year-end, as early selling pressure diminishes and turns into net buying demand. With the opening of the 401(k) plan, the market will see significant potential buy orders based on different allocation weights of 1% to 5%.

The giant digital asset manager, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, remains the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, holding approximately 770,800 BTC, valued at over $73 billion at current prices. The total net assets of spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $116.9 billion, about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap. Since their launch in early 2024, these products have accumulated net inflows exceeding $56 billion. Traders on Wall Street are closely watching every subtle change in ETF capital flows. Institutional investors, through daily ETF fund flows, are quietly reshaping the rules of the crypto market.