Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon—the 52-week price correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero for the first time since mid-2022. Even more interesting is that, according to current trends, these two assets are likely to turn negative correlation again before the end of January.

You ask what this means? History shows that whenever this happens, Bitcoin usually experiences a strong rally.

Looking back at past records, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned negative four times, three of which were quite powerful—on average, Bitcoin increased by 56% within two months. The only "failure" occurred in May 2021, when Bitcoin actually fell by 26%. What was happening then? A major car manufacturer paused accepting Bitcoin payments, and a certain country intensified its crackdown on mining, forcing the market to de-leverage and suppressing the original bullish signals.

But the current situation is different. The macro environment is clearly more favorable—global liquidity is rebounding (just look at M2 money supply), and a major central bank’s quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing completion. A global research director at an asset management firm recently pointed out that, based on historical experience, Bitcoin’s bull market cycles are usually synchronized with global liquidity expansion.

The new round of global easing has just begun, and central banks are about to stop QT. If history repeats itself, the growth rate of global liquidity should see a noticeable improvement, and the impact on market sentiment will be significant.