#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 January 14th, Bitcoin's recent surge is not just a coincidence. Behind what appears to be a simple price rally are three overlapping forces: short-term data, unexpected events, and deeper market structural factors.

Let's first look at the immediate trigger. The latest US December CPI data shows a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, fully in line with market expectations. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) was unexpectedly mild, rising only 2.6% YoY, below forecasts. Once this data was released, concerns about a rebound in inflation eased significantly, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's future rate cut prospects. For risk assets, this is a positive signal.

But this alone doesn't explain why Bitcoin could surge to $92,800 today. The real "black swan" comes from within the Federal Reserve. On the same day, Fed Chair Powell revealed that he is under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice regarding his congressional testimony in June 2025. Once this news broke, the market began to question: Can the Fed's independence still be guaranteed? Amid this uncertainty, many institutions and investors turned to Bitcoin as a politically neutral safe-haven asset, boosting demand.

The price quickly rose from $92,000 to near $92,800, reflecting real-time market reactions. But don't focus only on the rise; recent net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are a sign of constraints that cannot be ignored.

Looking deeper, the total assets under management of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $100 billion, indicating that traditional financial institutions now treat Bitcoin as a regular part of their asset allocation. This is not short-term speculation but structural capital inflow.

Interestingly, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero, the first time since mid-2022. History shows that whenever these two safe-haven assets diverge, Bitcoin often initiates a standalone rally. Coupled with the global liquidity rebound and the nearing end of Fed's quantitative tightening (QT), these macro factors are paving the way for crypto assets.

In the short term, $94,000 is a key level; breaking through it could open higher space. On the downside, $87,000 is an important support level. Whether this rally is a rebound or the start of a new trend depends critically on these two price points.