Having spent five or six years in the crypto world, my deepest realization is—many people overcomplicate things. It’s not that technical analysis is useless, but most people are using it in the wrong way. My returns over the past three months have multiplied sixfold, and the key isn’t in watching numerous moving averages, but in returning to the simplest logic.

**Follow the smart money, don’t watch the charts**

Spending about ten minutes a day on on-chain data is much more reliable than staying up all night watching candlestick charts. When a large address suddenly makes a big transfer, or the order book depth of a certain coin instantly increases, it usually means the big players are starting to move. Instead of guessing how the technicals will develop, it’s better to see who is actually making real money moves. When the big players push the price up, they’re taking profits; when they start to dump, they slip away—this straightforward logic is often more effective than complex indicator systems.

**Three days of consecutive decline can be an opportunity**

Many people become more afraid as prices fall, but I tend to buy when the whole network is pessimistic. But the premise must be clear: the core addresses show no signs of跑路. The main players still hold their chips, so why panic? While others cut losses, I accumulate in batches. Recently, a certain public chain’s token plummeted, and there was a lot of criticism on social media, but I found that the top ten holding addresses remained unmoved. I bought the dip and made a 40% profit in three days.

The key here is: don’t trust emotions, only trust on-chain data.

**Account numbers are more real than whitepapers**

Crypto isn’t a place for storytelling. No matter how grand a project’s vision, it’s less convincing than the numbers in your account. My first lesson for beginners is: set aside whitepapers and long-term beliefs. Your purpose for buying coins is clear—make money. If it rises, the logic was correct at the time; if it falls, cut losses immediately—don’t spin stories for yourself.

**Timing is the most valuable sense of proportion**

Technical indicators tell you the direction, but timing often determines the ceiling of your gains. In a bullish market, entering three days early or three days late can mean ten times the profit. This requires understanding the market rhythm—when is panic, when is optimism, and what is the state of the capital behind it.

Ultimately, in this market, those who survive long and thrive are often not the ones with the most indicators, but those who can hit the right rhythm.