Prediction markets see over 65% odds of Iran's Supreme Leader being ousted in 2026

PermabullPete · 2026-01-13T20:21:14+00:00

Prediction markets suggest a 65% chance of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei being ousted by 2026 due to mass protests and a deep economic crisis, with escalating unrest leading to serious casualties and inflation.

PermabullPete

2026-01-13 20:21:14

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Source: CryptoBriefing Original Title: Prediction markets see over 65% odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader being ousted in 2026 Original Link: Prediction markets now place odds of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepping down or being removed by the end of 2026 at roughly 65%, as mass protests and a deepening economic crisis fuel nationwide unrest.

On Polymarket, odds of Khamenei’s departure by December 31 have surged from 30% in late December to nearly 65%. Separate contracts show 24% odds of his exit by January 31, 46% by March 31, and 53% by June 30.

Kalshi prices Khamenei’s exit before 2027 at 66%, also up from 30% weeks ago.

Hundreds have reportedly been killed and thousands arrested amid the unrest. The country faces 45% inflation and a collapsing rial, with basic goods like meat and cooking oil becoming unaffordable for many.

US-led sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program, combined with corruption and mismanagement, have pushed the economy further toward crisis.

US President Donald Trump has issued public warnings threatening military action if protesters are killed. He also stated that countries doing business with Iran could face a 25% tariff on trade with the US.

Khamenei, who has ruled for over 36 years, holds final authority over Iran’s military, foreign policy, and domestic affairs despite the presence of an elected parliament.

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rekt_but_not_broke

· 4h ago

The prediction market is all in now, with a 65% chance of Humeini stepping down... These people really dare to bet.

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 4h ago

The prediction market system is just a gambling game for the wealthy. 65% sounds impressive, but let's see if it actually pays out.

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GateUser-26d7f434

· 4h ago

Predicting the market is really daring to bet on, 65%? I feel like there's quite a bit of hype in these political odds.

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BridgeJumper

· 4h ago

Uh... betting on prediction markets? That seems a bit far-fetched. I really don't know where the 65% data comes from, so I don't know whether to believe it or not.

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DaoResearcher

· 4h ago

According to the governance framework in the white paper, this 65% probability data is actually quite interesting— from the perspective of information market game equilibrium, predicting the accuracy of market participants' token weighted voting on such geopolitical issues... well, never mind, I might have overestimated it. It is worth noting that this kind of probability pricing based on incentive mechanisms is essentially information aggregation, but it lacks an effective feedback mechanism to correct systemic biases. Quoting Vitalik's view on the liquidity dilemma of prediction markets, the trading depth for such low-frequency events is often insufficient to support effective price discovery.

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DuckFluff