The latest US employment data released recently is a bit hard to swallow. The 584,000 new jobs added last year represent the slowest growth rate since 2020. What does this mean? It indicates that the momentum in the job market is clearly weakening. And there's another issue—data for 2024 and 2025 are likely to be further revised downward in next month's benchmark adjustments, meaning the actual situation could be worse than it appears now.

The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4%, reversing the upward trend seen in November (which was also revised), somewhat easing concerns about a rapid deterioration in the labor market. But this is just surface-level—actually, the unemployment rate is still slowly rising, and the trend is not optimistic.

What truly warrants caution is the broader U-6 unemployment measure. This indicator includes people who have given up looking for work and those who want full-time jobs but can only find part-time work. This number is rising much faster. Although there was a decline in December, the previous increase was significant, and the rebound is still far from enough.

The issue of employment shortfalls mainly stems from the increasing number of people forced into part-time work. While the number decreased in December, it is still far from fully offsetting the sharp jump in November. In other words, many people's working hours have been involuntarily reduced, and their income has dropped accordingly.

Looking at the age structure, employment rates for the main working-age group of 25 to 54 years old have remained relatively stable. The Black unemployment rate decreased in December, reversing the sharp rise in November. However, over the entire year, the Black unemployment rate increased notably, currently about twice that of White unemployment, reflecting structural issues.

The manufacturing sector is also not doing well. December marked the eighth consecutive month of layoffs. Over the year, manufacturing employment decreased by 68,000 jobs, and further downward revisions are possible in the benchmark adjustments. Signs of industry hollowing out are becoming increasingly evident.

Although the federal government added some jobs at the end of the year, it was far from enough to offset the large declines earlier in the year, especially the more severe downward revision in October. For the whole year, federal employment actually decreased by 274,000 jobs.

The most interesting aspect is the employment growth structure in the private sector. In 2025, out of the total 733,000 new private sector jobs, the healthcare and social assistance industry alone contributed 713,000. In other words, all other industries combined added only 20,000 jobs, indicating a severe imbalance in employment growth. Behind this phenomenon are deep structural issues in the economy—traditional industries are shrinking, new growth points are still accumulating, and during this transitional period, labor market pressures are indeed increasing.