US December employment data lands, and the market reaction is subtle. The numbers seem lukewarm, but underlying currents are surging—hiring is indeed slowing, yet the unemployment rate surprisingly improved. This "crippled growth" aligns perfectly with the soft landing narrative.

Let's look at some key figures first. In December, non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, marking the second consecutive month at this level, slightly below market expectations. At first glance, it seems insignificant, but zooming out, the estimated 584,000 new jobs in early 2025 spread over less than 50,000 per month. Compared to the average monthly increase of 168,000 in 2024, this is already a steep decline.

Interestingly, the unemployment rate dropped from a four-year high of 4.6% to 4.4%, indicating the labor market's resilience—though companies are less eager to hire, layoffs haven't accelerated much, and the market maintains a strange equilibrium.

What do you think of the Fed's approach? This report basically anchors expectations of holding steady in January. The data is neither too hot nor too cold, giving hawks a reason to stay on the sidelines. However, there's a hidden risk—on February 6, the annual benchmark revision will be announced, with industry insiders preliminarily suggesting recent employment data may have been overstated by nearly 76,000 jobs. Once that revision is implemented, the market could face new pricing pressures.

From a trading perspective, slowing growth can ease inflation fears, while ongoing resilience delays the pace of rate cuts. US stocks are likely to enter a phase of oscillation and consolidation. This "not too strong, not too weak" report, in theory, is the perfect template for a soft landing—moderate enough to soothe inflation expectations, steady enough to support consumption levels. But how long can it last? The revised data in February might be the turning point.