I received a call from Lao Wang, who is doing business, this morning. His tone was quite urgent: "Bro, look, ETH is already at 3120. If I wait any longer, I might really miss out! I want to use some revolving funds to heavily buy in again, maybe I can make a big profit by the end of the year." Listening to his plan, I could only advise him: "Bro, this kind of move is too risky. If the market turns against you, this money might be gone for good."

The longer you stay in the crypto market, the more you see through a harsh reality: most people's losses are not due to poor technical analysis or luck, but simply because they can't control their desires. Especially when encountering a "seems stable" market, people keep thinking about whether they can take a gamble. Take ETH recently as an example: from 3000 to 3120, then it started to consolidate sideways. How many people have been tortured by greed and anxiety during these hours?

Breaking down the current market situation, the core contradiction is quite clear: on one side, institutions want to unload, on the other side, retail investors are eager to jump in. Both sides are fighting over the 3120 level. Yesterday, from 3000 to 3149—honestly, this isn't because ETH's fundamentals have changed dramatically; it's purely a trap to attract more buyers. Think about it, if a real bull market had started, would the big players still push prices up so gently? They would have already driven the price to the daily limit to make those who missed out regret. The reason for the sideways consolidation at high levels now is that the big players still hold a bunch of entry chips around 3000, but haven't found enough willing retail investors to take the bait.

There's a pattern I've summarized over the years of watching the market: the longer the sideways movement, the higher the potential risk, especially after a sharp rise followed by high-level consolidation. This kind of consolidation isn't about digesting the gains but brewing a decline.