Next week (January 5-9), the US economy faces three "hard battles" that will directly set the tone for January's global volatility:

🗓️ January 5 (Monday): December ISM Manufacturing PMI — the "first line of defense" for the 2026 economy. Watching whether factories are still operating normally, whether manufacturing is expanding or contracting, directly determines the inflation baseline for the year.

🗓️ January 7 (Wednesday): December Services PMI + ADP Employment — the "rear support" of the economy and the "appetizer" for the non-farm payrolls. If the service sector can't hold up, a recession is truly near; if ADP surprises to the downside, markets will preemptively celebrate Friday’s rally.

🗓️ January 9 (Friday): December Non-Farm Employment Report (unemployment rate expected at 4.7%) — the "ultimate judge" of the week, the key to determining the fate of the Federal Reserve. Will the unemployment rate stay at 4.7% or break higher? This will directly finalize the rate cut expectations for January 28.

The current logic is extremely ruthless: the worse the data, the more certain the rate cuts, and the more euphoric the markets. The bottom line for 2026 lies within this data, as markets are pathologically hoping for a "bad news" event, because that is the only key to unlocking a bull market.