Opinion: Beware that after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office, the "positive news" may be exhausted, and uncertainties will likely erupt intensively from July to November.

Market News from Mars Finance: On December 29, Nomura Securities issued a warning, predicting that after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office in May next year, the Fed will lead a rate cut in June. However, with the US economic recovery, there may be strong internal opposition within the Federal Reserve to further rate cuts. Policy disagreements could not only weaken market confidence in the new Chair but also potentially trigger tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration. If the Fed maintains interest rates after the June meeting, it will inevitably clash with Trump, who demands further rate cuts to boost midterm election prospects. Nomura expects that uncertainty will peak from July to November next year, during which the market may see a trend of “fleeing US assets,” leading to a decline in US bond yields, a correction in US stocks, and a weakening dollar. Investors should be alert to possible liquidity reversals during this period. Major global economies may also halt rate cuts or even begin a rate hike cycle, thereby weakening the relative advantage of dollar assets. The policy deadlock, combined with inflation bottoming out and signals that the Federal Reserve will end its rate-cut cycle, will intensify market volatility.