Ethereum made some noise today. The 4-hour RSI plummeted directly to 21.1, a data point that is enough to make many people uneasy — this has entered the textbook-level oversold zone. According to historical patterns, every time it reaches this level, the market often experiences a violent rebound. But the problem is, the price is now stuck at 2947, while the trend on the daily chart is still downward.

This is interesting. Is it market makers digging a trap to cut leeks, or smart money taking the opportunity to bottom fish? From a technical perspective, the contradiction is quite obvious: the daily chart is bearish, but the 4-hour is already severely oversold, and the 1-hour candlesticks are beginning to show some rebound momentum. After a comprehensive assessment, the quality of this signal is roughly B+ — the opportunity is indeed in front of us, but the risk is also terrifyingly high.

Some are quietly positioning here, targeting the 2928-2935 range, closely aligned with the 1-hour support level. The "escape door" is set at 2890; if it breaks below, immediate withdrawal is necessary. This contrarian operation, in simple terms, is like dancing on the edge of a cliff, with small positions being the only discipline — total capital allocation should not exceed 3%.

How to play this? First, the direction is to go against the trend and buy on dips. After the price retraces to the sniper zone, confirm a bullish signal on the 1-hour before taking action. Never chase the rally near the current price; the probability of getting trapped is too high. After entering, the lifeline is set at 2890 — if touched, exit immediately without hesitation.

The first target is 2960. When reaching this level, lock in profits immediately and move the stop-loss to the cost price. If luck is on your side, 2990 is also within reach. But if the price breaks below 2926 and forms a retest, then the bullish script is immediately invalidated, and you must switch to a bearish mindset.

Ultimately, this is just a short-term game based on extreme data, not a sign of trend reversal. Betting on rebounds in a downtrend is essentially playing on the edge of a knife. The key to survival is discipline — light positions, strict stop-loss, and timely take-profit. The market changes in an instant, and those without discipline will end up being eaten.