The year 2026 begins with a "turning point" in the global central banking landscape. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan almost simultaneously took action—one continuing to maintain high interest rates, the other completely bidding farewell to the zero-interest-rate era that lasted for thirty years. The consequences of these two moves are rewriting the rules of the liquidity game.

Let's first look at the Fed. In the latest meeting minutes, rate cuts are simply not on the agenda. The initial jobless claims data dropped to 214,000, and the labor market remains hot, giving the Fed confidence to continue maintaining high interest rates. In the short term, the high-rate environment is expected to persist.

The real variable comes from Japan. Once a "wholesaler of cheap funds" for thirty years, the Bank of Japan has finally tightened the monetary policy. Governor Ueda Kazuo officially ended the zero-interest-rate era, which is equivalent to dismantling the support for the world's largest arbitrage trade. Hedge funds and investment institutions that relied on cheap yen and borrowed globally are suddenly forced to shrink their positions.

What does the simultaneous shift of these two major central banks mean? It’s like the two most familiar safety nets in the market are being pulled away at the same time. Short-term volatility is inevitable, and risk assets will undergo a significant stress test. But there’s an interesting twist: every time a large flood of liquidity ends, it’s a new narrative beginning.

When the yen is no longer cheap, global hot money will inevitably seek new destinations. Some funds may flow into places that do not follow the traditional liquidity script. The crypto market, as a relatively independent ecosystem, might just become the new landing spot for this major migration. When the tide recedes, some see risks, others see opportunities. The truly significant things often surface only after the tide goes out.