Bitcoin's cycle pattern: from 2013 to 2025's surge and retracement

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple intense crypto bull cycles, each reshaping the market landscape. Latest data shows that BTC is currently priced at $88.69K, a pullback from its all-time high of $126.08K, but its long-term upward trend remains clear. To understand future investment opportunities, we need to first look at the patterns of the past.

Decoding the Engines Behind Bitcoin’s Explosive Growth

Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are not random but driven by specific events. The three core factors are: halvings, institutional entry, regulatory breakthroughs.

Bitcoin’s halving, which occurs every four years, reduces miners’ rewards, artificially creating supply tightness. This often triggers bull cycles. Historical data confirms this pattern:

• 2012 halving: BTC surged by 5,200%
• 2016 halving: surged by 315%
• 2020 halving: surged by 230%
• April 2024 halving: triggered the strongest upward rally in this cycle

Exchange trading volume is another reliable signal. When daily average trading volume jumps from a few million dollars to tens of billions, it indicates significant capital inflow. On-chain data also speaks volumes—an increase in wallet activations, stablecoin inflows into exchanges, and declining BTC balances on exchanges—all show active accumulation by buyers.

The New Shift in 2024-2025: The Era of ETFs Begins

What is the biggest difference in this cycle compared to previous ones? Spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining SEC approval in the US.

In January 2024, the first batch of US spot BTC ETFs officially launched, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund holding over 467,000 BTC. By November, total capital inflow into all Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2.8 billion, a pace far surpassing the growth of gold ETFs in 2016. Institutional investors no longer need to open accounts on exchanges or worry about security— they can buy BTC just like stocks.

What has this channel opening brought? BTC soared from $40,000 at the start of the year to $93,000, a 132% increase. More importantly, the participant structure in this rally is completely different—no longer driven by retail FOMO, but by genuine institutional allocations.

Public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla continued to increase their holdings in 2024, further tightening market liquidity. Supply is locked, demand is activated—classic supply-demand imbalance.

From 2013 to 2021: A Textbook of Three Bull Cycles

2013 Awakening

Bitcoin first entered the public eye in 2013. From $145 to $1,200, a 730% increase. The driving force was pure: the Cyprus banking crisis made ordinary people realize the risks of centralized finance, and the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” began spreading. But this cycle also saw the collapse of Mt. Gox—at that time, 70% of global Bitcoin trading went through this platform, and a single point of failure caused a 75% market crash.

2017 Frenzy

2017 was a retail investor frenzy. The ICO boom swept the crypto space, with new projects raising funds through token issuance, attracting many retail investors. BTC rose from $1,000 to nearly $20,000, a 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume soared from $200 million to $15 billion. But beneath the prosperity lurked risks—China banned ICOs and exchanges, and this ban triggered the 2018 crash, with BTC plunging from $20,000 to $3,200.

2020-2021 Institutional Awakening

With the pandemic, central banks printed money, and traditional assets lost appeal. Bitcoin’s role as an “inflation hedge” became prominent. MicroStrategy CEO announced reallocating some cash reserves into BTC, followed by Square and Tesla. Institutional endorsement changed the market nature—no longer a playground for geeks but part of institutional portfolios.

That cycle saw BTC rise from $8,000 to $64,000 (later touching $69,000), a 700% increase. What’s the key difference? No catastrophic retracement this time. Although it retraced 53% from the high to around $30,000, the overall trend remained upward—signaling institutional participation. They don’t follow the FOMO selling; instead, they continue buying at the bottom.

Signals to Identify the Next Bull Cycle

If you want to seize opportunities in the next upward phase, monitor these three types of indicators:

Technical Signals

RSI (Relative Strength Index) breaking above 70 indicates strong buying momentum. The “golden cross” of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is a classic buy signal. In the 2024 rally, BTC’s RSI stayed above 70, with volume hitting new highs—full early-bull cycle technical features.

On-Chain Signals

Continuous inflows of stablecoins into exchanges suggest new funds preparing to buy. Declining BTC balances on exchanges indicate large holders are selling but holding their coins, preparing for long-term holding. Increasing wallet activations suggest old coins are waking up—these could be early players reacting to rising prices.

Macro Signals

Political cycles also influence crypto bull runs. Post-US elections, policy shifts, the turning point of central bank rate hikes, and geopolitical shocks to the dollar—all can reprice Bitcoin. By late 2024, proposals for Bitcoin as a strategic reserve are increasing, potentially fueling the next bull cycle.

Bitcoin’s Future: “Digital Gold+”

Government Reserves

El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, currently holding about 5,875 BTC. Bhutan is more aggressive—through its state investment company Druk Holding & Investments, it has accumulated over 13,000 BTC. US Senators proposed the BITCOIN Act, recommending the Treasury purchase 1 million BTC over five years—if passed, this would drastically alter supply and demand at the national level.

Technological Upgrades

The upcoming OP_CAT upgrade for Bitcoin is highly anticipated. This code update will support Layer-2 solutions and simple DeFi functions, theoretically increasing processing speed to thousands of transactions per second. This means Bitcoin will no longer just be a “savings jar” but can become a real payment and application network, expanding its use cases further.

Institutional Product Diversification

ETFs are just the beginning. Futures, funds, trusts, and more financial products are being launched. The core purpose of these products is to lower the participation barrier for institutions—traditional pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign funds can allocate Bitcoin just like stocks and bonds.

Practical Checklist for Investors

If you want to profit from the next bull cycle:

1. Learn historical patterns — Study the price movements of 2013, 2017, 2021 repeatedly, and develop your trading discipline
2. Establish dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies — Don’t go all-in; buy fixed amounts regularly, proven to be the most stable approach
3. Choose reliable platforms — Exchanges like Gate.io with proper licenses can protect your assets
4. Store large holdings in cold wallets — Transfer significant amounts to hardware wallets; keep only short-term operational funds on exchanges
5. Set stop-loss plans — Define clear stop-loss prices to avoid panic selling
6. Keep learning news and updates — Track regulatory policies, halving dates, major institutional holdings changes

Summary: The Bull Cycle Is Still on the Road

Bitcoin’s cycles are not magic but the natural evolution of supply-demand, policies, and market psychology. From $145 to $93,000, Bitcoin has proven its resilience as an asset.

Current price at $88.69K, though below the all-time high of $126.08K, still shows a broad upward trend in the long cycle. The next halving is in 2028, which will again trigger supply tightness. ETF inflows are ongoing, and institutional allocations are still in early stages.

For investors, understanding these cycles is not about precisely timing the bottom or top—that’s unrealistic. Instead, it’s about having confidence and patience to seize opportunities when the bull cycle arrives; maintaining discipline and wisdom to manage risks during bear markets. History shows every crypto bull cycle creates wealth and absorbs risks. The key question is: are you prepared?