On December 25th at 7:00 PM, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $87,700. During the Christmas holiday period, market liquidity has significantly dried up, trading volume has plummeted, and the market is basically moving in narrow ranges with low volatility. From a technical perspective, it is most likely to repeatedly test the bottom within the $87,000 to $88,000 range, so caution is needed against sudden "spikes." Key levels to watch are the resistance at $88,000 and support at $86,500.

**Real-time Market Situation**

As of 7:00 PM Beijing time, BTC is at $87,700, with a daily increase of less than 0.6%, and an amplitude of only 1.61%, indicating very calm market conditions. Trading volume has shrunk by over 45% compared to usual, and liquidity has dried up. Under such conditions, buy and sell depth is very poor, and large orders could cause significant volatility.

Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, is at 24, indicating extreme fear. Institutional and large traders have shown little enthusiasm in recent days, mostly observing the market.

**Key Price Levels**

Resistance levels to watch include—most recently—$88,000, which is today’s high and the upper boundary of the range. Above that, the zone between $88,500 and $89,000, and finally the psychological level of $90,000.

Support levels are around $87,000 to $87,500 for the intraday center, with the true core support at $86,500. If this level breaks, attention shifts to around $86,000, which is near yesterday’s low.

**Technical Analysis**

On the daily chart, moving averages are already in a bearish alignment, with the price below the midline, indicating a clear weak trend and a phase of correction, not yet bottoming out.

The 4-hour chart shows MACD in a shrinking, bearish state, and RSI is approaching oversold levels, which could suggest limited rebound strength.

**Evening Market Outlook**

The most probable scenario is continued narrow-range consolidation between $87,000 and $88,000, with low volatility persisting, possibly with no major moves overnight. However, if volume increases and the price stabilizes above $88,000, it could turn to test $88,500 or even $89,000.

Conversely, if the price breaks below $87,000 and loses support at $86,500, it may decline further toward $86,000, with a more pessimistic scenario possibly reaching $85,500.

The most dangerous aspect is the low liquidity environment, which can be easily shaken by rumors or large transfers by big players. Spike moves are most likely during holidays, and volatility could be amplified infinitely, so vigilance is essential.

**Trading Recommendations**

Position management is the top priority. At this stage, it’s best to operate with light positions, holding no more than 30%, or simply observing. Avoid heavy leverage or chasing trades. Holiday markets lack sustainability, and chasing can easily lead to being caught in a trap.

If you must trade, consider small long positions between $87,000 and $87,500 with a stop loss at $86,500; or short positions between $87,800 and $88,000 with a stop loss at $88,300. The key is to enter and exit quickly, avoiding the expectation of capturing large moves.

In terms of risk control, reassess the trend only if the price breaks below $86,500 or stabilizes above $88,000. Do not guess trends blindly. Keep individual losses within 2% as the bottom line.