Based on the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cuts" and various institutional viewpoints, BTC's future trend may exhibit short-term volatility, medium-term weakness, and long-term first decline then rise:

1. Short-term (1-3 trading days)

Fluctuation within the $89,350-$92,000 range. Policy signals have been digested; $89,350 is a strong support, and $92,000 is a strong resistance; a volume-supported stabilization at $91,000 could lead to an upward move toward $92,000, while dropping below $89,350 could see a decline to $88,500-$89,000.

2. Medium-term (1-3 months, until the January 2026 FOMC meeting)

A weak oscillation. The Federal Reserve has clarified that "the magnitude and timing of rate cuts are uncertain," and most institutions believe that rate cuts will pause in January (CITIC Securities, CICC, Allspring). The continuation of a high-rate environment will suppress the valuation of risk assets like BTC; a trendless upward movement is unlikely in the medium term. The Fed is highly likely to pause rate cuts in January, with high rates suppressing valuations; if inflation/employment data favor rate cuts, BTC could rebound to around $94,000; otherwise, it may dip to $88,000.

3. Long-term (first half of 2026 and beyond)

First half: A wait-and-see period dominates: The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a pause in rate cuts in the first half of next year (Guolian Minsheng Macro), and leadership changes (Mitsubishi UFJ) will increase policy uncertainty. BTC is likely to maintain wide fluctuations within a range of $85,000-$95,000.

Second half: A trend likely emerges: if the Fed resumes rate cuts as expected in March/June (ING, CICC), liquidity easing will become the core positive factor for BTC; at the same time, increased industry compliance (such as the implementation of US and European regulations) will boost institutional confidence. BTC is expected to break through the previous resistance of $95,000 and initiate a new rally. #美联储降息预测 #广场发帖领$50 #加密市场反弹 Personal opinions for reference only#加密市场观察