#美联储货币政策 After looking at this week's news, I feel that the market is still quite volatile. U.S. stocks are under pressure, and Bitcoin has dropped 18%, indicating that risk appetite has decreased again. However, I am more concerned about next week's Fed beige book, which could become a key factor in deciding whether to cut interest rates in December. After all, before the December meeting, we won't receive new CPI or employment reports.

To be honest, it is indeed very difficult to assess the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December. The market is pricing in nearly a 50% chance, which is really hard to guess. However, from the perspective of long-term rates, if the Fed hints at a possible rate cut in January during the meeting, then whether or not they lower rates in December actually doesn't make much difference.

I think that for those of us who follow the market, rather than getting caught up in whether the interest rate will drop in December, it is better to follow the speeches of Fed officials, especially Jefferson's views. His opinions often align closely with Powell's, and may reveal some information about the direction of policy.

In addition, next week is Thanksgiving, and market liquidity will significantly drop. During this time, it is important to be cautious, as some abnormal fluctuations may occur. I plan to observe the market reaction and adjust my copy trading strategy accordingly, possibly reducing some positions and adding them back when the market stabilizes. After all, stability leads to longevity.