From a moonlight clan to an asset allocator, I paid 190,000 in tuition for three painful lessons. The days of debt collection messages and overdue Transaction History are still fresh in my memory. Now looking back at those loss records, each entry is a priceless practical lesson.

The most expensive tuition in the crypto market often comes from misjudgments. I hope to整理 the pitfalls I've encountered over the years in order to help those who come after avoid taking the wrong path.

**Fatal Misjudgments About Market Manipulation and Market Peaks**

I remember once chasing a small-cap project, and when it rose by 20%, I panicked, fearing that a pullback would take my profits away. As a result, after liquidating my position, it soared another 50%. That feeling was like winning the lottery but tearing up the ticket. Later, upon reviewing, I realized that a slow pullback after a rapid surge is often the main players clearing short-term profit takers, and holding during that time is the right choice.

But conversely, last year a mainstream cryptocurrency surged 35% in a single day, and suddenly plummeted in the afternoon. I immediately sold off my holdings and successfully avoided a subsequent 45% pullback. What’s the difference? The flash crash after a surge indicates that funds are exiting en masse, and even hesitating for a second could lead to being trapped.

**High-level volume reduction is the most dangerous signal**

There’s another painful lesson: when holding a certain popular asset, the price is consolidating at a high level, but the trading volume suddenly shrinks to a pitiful level. At that time, I naively thought it was the "calm before the storm"; a week later, it directly halved, and 30,000 yuan just evaporated like that.

My current principle is: high positions must have volume support, and active speculation means there is still an opportunity. Once the volume shrinks to a state of silence, it is a sign that big funds are quietly withdrawing. If you don't leave at that time, you are just waiting to be the one to take over.

**What does a real bottom look like**

The dumbest operation in the early years: After a coin dropped by 25%, it rebounded by 10%, and I excitedly shouted "The bottom-buying opportunity has arrived", but then it dropped again by 30%. The real bottom is not guessed, but rather observed through consecutive bullish candles combined with volume, indicating that capital is continuously entering the market to take over. A single rebound means nothing; a sustained volume increase for more than three consecutive days is the signal for a trend reversal.

These experiences do not have any profound theories; they are all earned with real money. The market will not show mercy just because you are a novice, but fortunately, the rules can be summarized.