Is the Crypto Assets bull run over? Ben Cowen talks about alts: Stop believing your portfolio will double.

In the past few years, the crypto market has experienced dramatic fluctuations, a frenzy of capital inflow, and the subsequent disillusionment of bubbles. Now, with quantitative tightening (QT) nearing its end, Bitcoin struggling around the 100K USD level, and alts continuing to depreciate, many investors are beginning to doubt: has this bull run come to an end? Ben Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a well-known market cycle analyst, delves into the current market structure during an exclusive interview with Bonnie Blockchain and shares his predictions for the crypto market over the next year up to 2026.

Is it not a correction, but a bear market? Bitcoin price raises alarm.

After two consecutive weeks of decline, testing the 50-week moving average, is 100K the final line of defense?

According to analysis by Ben Cowen, when Bitcoin experiences a consecutive number of weeks with closing prices below the 50-week moving average (50W MA), it is usually an important signal that a bull run is ending and a bear market is beginning. Currently, Bitcoin is struggling within this critical range, and if it further drops below the 100K USD mark, it is likely to confirm the entry into a bear market cycle in 2026.

He added that historically, Bitcoin's performance tends to be poor before the end of quantitative tightening and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) shift to a rate-cutting phase. Cowen pointed out, “The same was true in the last cycle; after QT ended, Bitcoin fell first, and the real rebound only began once QE (quantitative easing) was fully launched.”

The altcoin bull run has never really happened? This time “not at all kept up”

“We have not experienced a season of alts, only selective surges.”

Cowen stated: “We haven't really had an alts season this round.” Although certain tokens have surged in the short term, such as SOL and BNB, most alts continue to perform weakly against Bitcoin, and the overall market has not experienced the widespread prosperity seen in 2017 or 2021. He emphasized that a true alts season is when the majority of alts show sustained increases against BTC, “but in this cycle, what we've seen is a series of selective speculation and rebounds, rather than an overall bull run.”

Alts are not a long-term investment: Learn to take lessons.

“Don't believe that your investment portfolio will double again” - Cowen's warm reminder to retail investors

For retail investors who still hold alts and are facing heavy losses, Cowen suggests, “Consider this as tuition. We have all stepped on landmines, but that shouldn't lead to abandoning investment.” He urges investors to learn to measure their portfolios in Satoshi (the smallest unit of Bitcoin), rather than just looking at USD net worth. This way, they can clearly assess whether a certain altcoin is truly worth holding.

“If the altcoin you are investing in continues to depreciate against BTC, then it's not an investment, it's a liability.” Cowen further pointed out that historically, many projects like Litecoin, Dash, etc., have experienced a long-term “spiral of death” decline after a brief surge during a bull run.

Where has the capital gone? Institutionalization has made the market more “boring”.

The institutionalization of crypto assets, while bringing stability, also diminishes opportunities for speculation and explosive growth. Cowen explains that institutional funds pursue risk management and prefer mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Additionally, the lack of clear profit reports (such as financial reports in the stock market) makes it more difficult for alts to attract long-term capital in the current macro environment.

AI Bubble vs. Crypto Winter: Is Capital More Favored Towards New Technology?

Cowen mentioned that AI technology is accelerating the enhancement of corporate efficiency and workforce reduction, with many developers who originally invested in crypto now turning to the AI field. “However, such technological innovation may ultimately lead to an economic recession.” He analyzed that when too many workers are unemployed and overall demand declines, it creates a negative cycle, ultimately putting pressure on the market.

Market Cycle Observation: 2026 May Be Key

Cowen believes that if Bitcoin peaks in the fourth quarter of this year, the next entry opportunity is expected to be seen in the summer of 2026. He stated, “Market bear markets typically last about a year, but if there is no obvious frenzy this year, the decline may be more moderate.”

He suggests that investors can pay attention to the “Risk Metric” when it is below 0.2 as a signal for long-term positioning. Such intervals usually indicate highly attractive buying points. The strategy he personally uses is “Dynamic DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging)”, which means increasing investment when the risk is lower and reducing investment when the risk is higher, thus more effectively controlling the average cost.

A dull market does not mean the market is dead.

Despite many investors feeling disappointed with the current market, Cowen remains cautiously optimistic. He reminds us: “The market itself has no reason to rise, but it doesn't need too many reasons to rise. The bubble won't burst instantly; it can also take years to deflate.”

In a liquidity environment that remains tight and with low retail participation, it may still be difficult to see a frenzy market before the end of 2025. However, as macro policies may shift and risk assets regain favor, the market could welcome a new upward cycle in mid-2026.

This article discusses whether the crypto market bull run has ended? Ben Cowen talks about alts: Don't believe that your portfolio will double again. First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.