小麦先物、月曜日の強い上昇後に調整局面へ—市場を動かしている要因は何か

Wheat kicked off Tuesday with a reality check. After Monday’s solid gains across all three contracts—soft red winter wheat up 9-10 cents, Kansas City hard red up 7-10 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat gaining 4-6 cents—the complex is now showing weakness in early trade, particularly in the hard red segment.

The Numbers That Matter

Monday’s export data painted a bullish picture: 350,293 MT of wheat shipped last week (10/30), marking a 60.96% jump year-over-year and crushing the prior week by 30%. Mexico led demand with 61,922 MT, while the Philippines (57,564 MT) and South Korea (54,999 MT) rounded out the top three.

Year-to-date tally? 11.825 MMT shipped—up 20.51% versus last year’s pace. That’s the real momentum story here.

What’s Catching Attention

The headline grabber: China is actively looking to source wheat from the U.S. This hasn’t been the norm recently, and it could signal a shift in procurement patterns. Simultaneously, SovEcon is estimating Russia’s 2025/26 crop at 87.8 MMT—a data point worth tracking as global supply dynamics tighten.

Current Levels (Dec 25 / Mar 26 Contracts)

• CBOT Soft Red: $5.43½ / $5.57½ (Monday +9-9½ cents)
• KCBT Hard Red: $5.31¾ / $5.46½ (Monday +7¼-9¾ cents)
• MGEX Spring: $5.59½ / $5.78½ (Monday +4½-5½ cents)

Early Tuesday action shows contracts mixed-to-lower, with open interest showing some short covering on the Kansas City side (-9,386 contracts Monday).

The Takeaway

The export surge and China’s renewed buying interest provide a floor for wheat, but don’t expect a straight line up. Volatility around supply expectations (Russian crop size, U.S. inventories) and macro headwinds could keep this consolidative through the session. Watch for any additional China purchase announcements—that’s the catalyst to monitor.