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In the <a href="/ja/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">cryptocurrency market</a>, meme coins with community culture at their core always attract the attention of investors, and the popular token TOSHI in the Base Chain ecosystem has recently become the focus. With its price fluctuations and the increasing market heat, a core question has been repeatedly discussed: Can TOSHI break through the key threshold of $0.01? This article will analyze from multiple dimensions such as fundamentals, market environment, technical aspects, and potential risks.

According to the market data from Gate.io, the TOSHI Token is currently priced at $0.00033, with a 24-hour increase of 0.75%. The current market capitalization of the TOSHI Token is $13.5 million, ranking 285th in the overall market. The highest price of TOSHI was set at $0.00233 on January 26, 2025, with the current price down nearly 85% from the all-time high.

## Fundamental analysis of TOSHI: Community strength and ecological potential

TOSHI was born on the Layer2 network Base chain. Its positioning is not only a mere meme coin, but also dedicated to building an ecosystem that includes NFTs, decentralized applications (DApps), and on-chain governance. This dual attribute of "culture + tools" sets it apart from other meme coins that survive solely on speculation.

1. Community-driven and brand narrative: The inspiration for TOSHI's name comes from the nickname 'Toshi' of the founder of <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a>, Satoshi Nakamoto. This naming strategy cleverly binds itself to the 'decentralized spirit' of cryptocurrency. Currently, its official Twitter has over 100,000 followers, and the Discord community continues to grow in activity. User-generated MEME and emoji packs further expand the spread effect.
2. Ecosystem Expansion and Partnerships: The project recently announced the launch of the TOSHI NFT series and collaboration with DeFi protocols on the Base chain, planning to apply the token to scenarios such as games and virtual goods payments. If these use cases are implemented, TOSHI may shift from being a 'utility coin' to a 'practical token,' providing fundamental support for its price.
3. Deflation mechanism and chip distribution: According to on-chain data, the total supply of TOSHI is 4.2069 trillion, of which about 40% has been destroyed. The project adopts a mechanism of destroying part of the tokens for each transaction. Theoretically, as the trading volume increases, the circulation will gradually decrease. In addition, the top 100 addresses hold about 35% of the tokens, with a moderate concentration, avoiding the risk of excessive control and retaining the characteristics of community.

## Market environment: The outbreak of Base chain and the boost of Meme season

The Base chain, with its advantages of low Gas fees and high throughput, has attracted a large number of developers and users. Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the number of daily active addresses on the Base chain has grown by over 300%, and the soaring of meme coins such as DEGEN and BRETT has further ignited market enthusiasm. As an early project on the Base chain, TOSHI is expected to benefit from the dividends of this ecosystem.

Historical data shows that the market rebound after Bitcoin's halving is often the window for the explosion of meme coins. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $85,000. If it breaks through the previous high later on, funds may rotate towards high-risk assets. OSHI currently has a market value of about $135 million. If it can replicate the hundredfold myth of SHIB or PEPE, the $0.01 target is not out of reach.

## Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Level and Volume Signal

From [Price trend](/price-prediction) Let's take a look, TOSHI has experienced multiple 'surge-pullback' cycles in 2025, currently oscillating between 0.0003-0.0005 US dollars. If it breaks through the strong resistance at 0.0006 US dollars, the next target will be 0.001 US dollars. It is worth noting that the trading volume of TOSHI significantly shrinks during the pullback phase, but increases during the rebound, indicating that the main funds have not exited.

From the Fibonacci retracement analysis, $0.01 exactly corresponds to the 1.618 extension level. If market sentiment cooperates, this level may become a phased target for the bulls. However, in the short term, one needs to beware of profit-taking pressure: the market value corresponding to $0.01 will be close to $500 million, and more external funds are needed to sustain the uptrend.

Overall, the probability of OSHI breaking through $0.01 by 2024 is about 40%. The following conditions are required to achieve this goal:

- Market perspective: Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, driving the arrival of the altcoin season;
- Project level: Ecological application landing, exchange listing bullish release;
- Community level: TOSHI maintains high activity, attracting more 'Holders' rather than short-term speculators.

## TOSHI Token Future Outlook

Meme coins with lack of substantial value are highly susceptible to market sentiment. If Bitcoin suddenly plummets or regulatory policies tighten, TOSHI may quickly collapse. Currently, TOSHI's NFTs and DApps are still in the early stages, and if the team fails to deliver products on time, investor confidence may crumble. In addition, dozens of new meme coins emerge on the Base chain daily, diverting funds and attention. TOSHI needs to innovate continuously to maintain its leading position.

For investors, the potential returns and risks of TOSHI coexist. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "small position participation + strict stop-loss" and closely monitor the dynamics of the Basechain ecosystem. In the world of crypto, the collision of culture and finance never stops, and whether TOSHI can write a new legend may depend on whether the community consensus can cross the critical point from "entertainment" to "belief".

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author: **Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. Investment involves risks and users need to make careful decisions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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TOSHI Token Price Prediction: Possibility and Challenges of Breaking $0.01