February 13, 2026 marks a key liquidity event for the cryptocurrency derivatives market this month. According to data from Deribit, Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts with a notional value approaching $3 billion are set to expire and settle today at 08:00 UTC. While this figure falls short of January’s "expiry flood," the unusual shifts in the put/call ratio and max pain pressure beneath the surface are actively reshaping market sentiment.
Following early February’s liquidity-driven deleveraging, the market is now focused on a crucial question: Is this a brief calm after the storm, or the final buildup before a new directional breakout? Gate combines the latest on-chain data with exclusive market insights to break down the impact of this options expiry on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
Expiry Data Overview: $3 Billion Looms, Max Pain in Focus
According to official Deribit data, the breakdown for this expiry is as follows:
- Bitcoin (BTC) options: Notional value of $2.52 billion, put/call ratio at 0.76, max pain point at $75,000.
- Ethereum (ETH) options: Notional value of $390 million, put/call ratio at 0.93, max pain point at $2,200.
BTC options at expiry. Source: Deribit
ETH options at expiry. Source: Deribit
Max Pain Explained: This price level represents the point where option buyers incur the greatest losses and sellers gain the most. With BTC spot trading well below the $75,000 max pain level, most call options are now out-of-the-money. As a result, market makers and sellers face little need for large-scale hedging, which may dampen the typical "pinning effect" seen before expiry. However, this also means the market has lost a short-term price anchor.
It’s worth noting that although the total notional value this time is lower than the late January yearly peak, Ethereum’s put/call ratio is as high as 0.93—almost evenly balanced. This indicates that the battle between bulls and bears in the ETH market is heating up, with strong demand for hedging.
Gate Exclusive Market Watch: Latest BTC and ETH Price Action
As of February 13, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) spot is priced at $66,227.2. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has fallen by 1.39%, with volatility narrowing to under 5%. The 24-hour low reached $65,111, while the high touched $68,419.7.
Looking at volume dynamics, BTC’s 24-hour trading volume stands at $781.46M, noticeably lower than recent days. This is a classic sign of "wait-and-see" behavior ahead of expiry. Bitcoin’s current market cap is $1.31T, with a market dominance of 55.42%, maintaining its strong lead.
Ethereum (ETH) spot is at $1,936.62, down 1.80% in 24 hours. ETH’s 24-hour trading volume is $205.91M, with a market cap of about $233.26B and a 9.80% market share.
- Prices Below Max Pain: BTC’s spot price is 11.7% below the $75,000 max pain level; ETH is 12% below its $2,200 max pain point. This makes expiry highly favorable for sellers, with minimal passive selling pressure.
- Volatility Continues to Compress: Gate’s market indicators show the BVIX (BTC Volatility Index) at 52.39, down 6.04% on the day; EVIX (ETH Volatility Index) at 70.74, down 5.73%. A low implied volatility (IV) environment is often a precursor to major price moves.
Decoding Options Market Sentiment: The "Fear Inertia" Behind Put Skew
Despite technical rebounds in spot prices over the past week (BTC up 4.97% in 7 days, ETH up 5.92%), mid-term signals from the options market remain cautious.
The risk reversal indicator is a key tool for gauging protective demand. According to analyses from Laevitas and Greeks.live, while the 1-week and 1-month 25-delta risk reversals have rebounded from extreme lows, they remain deeply negative at around -13 and -11, respectively. In plain terms, traders are still paying a hefty premium for put options.
BTC Delta RRS. Source: Laevitas on X
This "put skew" is rooted in early February’s market memory—when BTC plunged sharply, triggering a cascade of liquidations. Although prices have recovered, institutional capital has not rushed back into bullish positions. Instead, there’s been continued demand for out-of-the-money puts with strike prices between $60,000 and $65,000 for tail-risk hedging. This suggests professional investors remain cautious about macro liquidity conditions over the next one to two months.
Price Outlook: 2026 Pathways Through the Data Lens
Drawing on Gate’s models and macro factor adjustments, this section offers a quantitative view of potential price trajectories.
Bitcoin (BTC) Annual Outlook
Driven by post-halving supply constraints and potential institutional allocation, the model projects BTC’s average price center for 2026 at $66,054.9. Prices are expected to swing widely between $62,752.15 and $78,605.33 throughout the year. If the market breaks upward after options expiry, the $70,000 psychological level will serve as the key battleground.
Ethereum (ETH) Annual Outlook
ETH continues to face competitive pressure from projects like Solana, but its Layer 2 ecosystem and growing institutional adoption provide valuation support. The average price forecast for 2026 is $1,936.98, with a lower bound of $1,084.7 factoring in extreme liquidity shocks and an upper bound testing $2,324.37. The Ethereum Foundation’s recent launch of a Chinese-language institutional portal should help boost long-term acceptance among compliant capital.
Volatility Outlook
Historical data shows that the 24 to 48 hours following monthly options expiry often see a "volatility re-inflation" window. Traders should watch whether BTC can hold above $65,000 and ETH above $1,900 as key psychological supports this weekend.
Trading Wisdom for the Lull: From Expiry to Positioning
This $3 billion expiry event acts as a "truth mirror," reflecting a market that lacks both FOMO and outright panic. With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, crypto markets have lost their macro narrative catalyst for now, shifting focus to internal liquidity structures.
For Gate users, periods of low IV and directional uncertainty often present opportunities to optimize position costs:
- Long-term holders: Consider option-selling strategies, such as selling out-of-the-money puts to accumulate spot positions.
- Short-term traders: Beware of post-expiry "sell the news" reversals and maintain strict leverage controls.
Conclusion
While $3 billion in notional value may not be the largest wave in crypto derivatives history, its arrival during a fragile period of market recovery is enough to keep everyone on edge. The resilience shown by Bitcoin and Ethereum on expiry day may be more telling than price action alone. Gate will continue to monitor on-chain whale activity and open interest in derivatives, providing you with first-hand market snapshots as the next inflection point approaches.
