Recent international developments have indeed made market sentiment somewhat tense. The US security warning combined with the USD to IRR exchange rate breaking through the extreme level of 1:1000055, and the sharp depreciation of the IRR, are enough to remind many crypto investors of the rapid collapse of certain air projects. Currently, market risk appetite has clearly declined, and many are pondering whether to cut losses in time.

But before analyzing this issue, it is necessary to understand a fundamental logic: geopolitical conflicts often act as amplifiers of financial market emotions, with a particularly direct impact on crypto assets. This stems from a simple fact—crypto assets are still classified by the mainstream as high-risk asset categories. Once geopolitical risks heat up, the instinctive reaction of capital is to seek safe havens, either flowing back into the USD and gold or exiting the market altogether to wait for clarity. This process inevitably triggers a sharp increase in short-term volatility in the crypto market.

However, a key variable in this round cannot be ignored: the influence of macro political cycles. From the US political agenda, the performance of the economy and capital markets often become the ruling party’s biggest leverage. The stability of the market has a direct pull on the political agenda—if the market shows significant decline at critical times, voter confidence will be damaged, thereby affecting the political prospects of the ruling party.

From another perspective, the current risk exposure expansion should be understood not as pure panic, but as a rational release of market pressure. In this context, anxiety may be merely a short-term phenomenon rather than a signal of long-term trends.