Gate Options Underlying Weekly Trend Review
| Currency | Weekly rise | Transaction amount last week (September 15 - September 21) | Transaction amount this week (September 22 - September 29) | Trading Volume Rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | -2.45% | $296.7 B | $324 B | 9.20% |
| ETH | -4.68% | $222.3 B | $260.5 B | 17.20% |
| ADA | -2.64% | $10.5 B | $8.76 B | -16.60% |
| DOGE | -4.84% | $27.1 B | $22.3 B | -19.30% |
| LTC | -4.45% | $4 B | $3.7 B | -8% |
| SOL | -9.84% | $53.1 B | $58.1 B | 9.40% |
| TON | -4.45% | $1.03 B | $1 B | -2.90% |
| XRP | -1.46% | $36.4 B | $44.9 B | 23.40% |
Note: The trading volume is the weekly trading volume of the entire market SPOT. The overall 7-day average daily trading volume trend of the SPOT market is shown in the figure below, with a significant rise this week.
BTC fluctuates around the 60-day moving average.
The overall price of BTC remains oscillating in the range of $108,000–$116,500, with multiple brief breakthroughs of the 60-day moving average (around $114,000), but none were able to effectively stabilize, showing as a sideways consolidation around the moving average. The upper resistance level is $117,200; the primary support level below is $107,500–$110,000. If it breaks below, it may further retreat to the $100,000–$110,000 range. Implied volatility has decreased in the past week, market sentiment is becoming cautious, and short-term bullish and bearish forces remain balanced.
In a fluctuating pattern, two sharp fluctuations are worth noting:
- September 22: BTC intraday drop of about -2.2%, with the price retreating from ~$115,300 to ~$112,000, reflecting insufficient bullish momentum under moving average pressure, with selling pressure concentrated and released.
- September 25: BTC’s daily drop exceeded -3%, briefly falling below $113,000 and reaching the $109,000+ range, with risk aversion rising sharply.
The sharp decline in the past two days reflects the market’s vulnerability under the influence of key moving averages and the macro environment. It also indicates that although the overall trend remains sideways, significant fluctuations could break the balance at any time. Before the trend is confirmed, the 60-day moving average remains the core center of competition between bulls and bears.
ETH has been overall weak for a week.
ETH price After falling from a high of $4,000, it briefly touched around $3,800, with short-term price movements under pressure.
Key support: The $4,200–$4,300 area has been tested multiple times in the past week. If it continues to be lost, it may further probe the $3,500–$4,000 range, which is a stronger mid-term support zone. Technical observation: ETH has broken below the short-term moving average support, and the technical structure has entered a correction phase. The momentum indicators on the daily level (such as RSI) are weakening, showing that selling pressure is dominant. Market sentiment: The decline of ETH is greater than that of BTC, indicating relative weakness and showing insufficient market confidence in ETH, with signs of capital outflow possibly emerging. Implied volatility has risen slightly, reflecting the market’s concern about downside risks.
Options Main Data*
Implied volatility aspect
The BTC 7-day Options IV quickly rose from 34% to 36%, and the implied volatility trends for options with different expiration dates are as follows:
The ETH 7 date options IV index is fluctuating around 60% near recent lows; the implied volatility situation of ETH options with different expiration dates this week is as follows:
Options Sentiment Indicator
The PCR (Put/Call Ratio) of options positions refers to the ratio of the open interest of put options to that of call options. The PCR is often used to gauge investor sentiment and expectations in the market.
The PCR (Put/Call Ratio) of options transactions refers to the ratio of the transaction volume of put options to the transaction volume of call options. PCR is commonly used to gauge investors’ sentiment and expectations about the market. Specifically, when PCR is greater than 1, it means that the trading volume of put options is greater than that of call options, which may reflect a pessimistic sentiment from option buyers regarding the market trend, believing that the price of the underlying asset may decline. Conversely, when PCR is less than 1, it means that the trading volume of call options is greater than that of put options, which may reflect an optimistic sentiment from option buyers regarding the market trend, believing that the price of the underlying asset may rise.
As of Monday, September 29, the BTC Options PCR (Put/Call Ratio) has remained above 1 for two weeks, rapidly rising to 1.36 this week, indicating a warming of bearish sentiment. The ETH PCR indicator has seen a significant decline, indicating a warming of bullish sentiment.
Strategy Weekly Review and Suggestions:
Strategy recommendations applicable to different market conditions
| Market expectations | Recommended Strategy | Risk Warning |
|---|---|---|
| Fluctuation biased towards strength | Sell Put / Bull Put Spread | The focus is on collecting premiums, and one must be aware of the risk of extreme declines. |
| mild pump | Covered Call | Limited but steady profits, underperforming long holders. |
| Expected consolidation | Double Selling Strategy (Put + Call) | Receive bidirectional premiums, suitable for low fluctuation environments. |
| Expected pullback | Bear Market Call Spread / Sell Call | Low cost but high directional risk |
Market Analysis: The rebound is under pressure, and moderate defense is the main focus.
- BTC has retreated from the upper range to around $111,800. If the downward momentum continues to increase, the support below will be severely tested.
- In this price range, simply going long carries a higher risk due to limited upward momentum.
- Using Options strategies can control risk while capturing limited gains.
Strategy Suggestion: Bear Call Spread
- Sell Call: Strike price $115,000, Premium received ≈ $1,200
- Buy Call: Strike Price $118,000, Premium Paid ≈ $600
- Maximum net income: ≈ $600
Overview of Policy Events and Market Impact
- United States: Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve Plan Triggers Market Fluctuation
Former U.S. President Trump announced on September 24 that Bitcoin and Ethereum will be the core assets of the national strategic reserve, and will include Solana, XRP and Cardano and other tokens.
- Institutional investors withdrawing funds and ETF capital outflow
On September 26, the ETH spot ETF saw a record net outflow of $796 million, primarily from large institutions such as Fidelity and BlackRock. This indicates that institutional investors are cautious about the short-term market outlook, leading to ETH price Again fell below 4000 dollars.
